The Wizard Himself - FAQ

My current publication measures 5.5 inches by 8.5 inches. Unfortunately, I don't have any plans to release another edition in the near future.

I developed my own combinatorial program that examines every possible outcome while maintaining a tally of results based on their likelihood. My calculations are quite precise, except when it comes to situations involving the re-splitting of pairs.

On the rare occasions I engage in games with a negative expectation, I do it primarily for enjoyment. pai gow (tiles) The only game I truly find enjoyable enough to play without any edge is poker.

I'm interested in learning more about futures trading, but currently, my schedule is too packed. I earn my income through advertisements on this site (please support by clicking the banners) and consulting for analysis on new casino games.

While anyone can make errors, craps is fundamentally straightforward to analyze mathematically, so I am confident in my odds calculations for that game. Yes, gambling in one form or another is my full-time self-employed profession. I've visited Atlantic City numerous times in recent years, but just two months ago, I relocated to Las Vegas, so I won’t be visiting Atlantic City much anymore. I prefer a combinatorial method instead of random simulations whenever applicable. I use my own software created in Visual C++, and for generating random numbers, I use a Mersenne Twister .

I intend to reach out to my newsletter subscribers regarding this. Since you’re inquiring, it should be broadcast in April or May on a show likely titled 'The Top Ten Ways to Win.' I've participated in radio and television interviews before, and I always find it hard to watch or listen to myself afterward, feeling I could have performed better; therefore, I don’t plan to promote it heavily.

Approximately $800. I tend not to wager substantial amounts. There was a time I lost even more while trying to chase a 2 to 1 blackjack promotion at an online casino.

Thank you for the flattering comments regarding my Travel Channel segment. For those who missed it, the episode was called Sucker Bets. The dealer was accurate; typically, bets are turned off on a come-out roll since a seven would lead to a loss for the player. They likely prefer to avoid players disrupting the table's atmosphere by rooting against a seven on the come-out roll. Because a seven would allow the don’t pass odds to win, those remain active.

You are correct in noting that I don’t provide detailed guidance on money management. Unlike many gambling authors, I avoid placing significant emphasis on how much to wager or when to leave a game. For casual gamblers, no money management approach will change the house edge in the long run, so why focus on it? While I provide detailed strategies for playing your hand, the amount you choose to bet is your decision. There should always be some room for personal choice in gambling. Nonetheless, I emphasize that if gambling stops being fun due to substantial losses, it's definitely time to step back.

Since I began gambling online four years ago, I've gained approximately $20,000, with half of that attributed to the Golden Palace. The reviews you see reflect just my latest experiences, and like anyone else, I occasionally endure losing streaks for a month or two. However, I recently won $786 at a particular site and $2,317 at Casino Kingdom. My request for donations isn't to sustain a losing gambling habit; instead, they help me keep this site available for everyone at no charge. In reality, donations come via PayPal, which I usually use for purchases on eBay. Casino.Net Does cracking one's knuckles lead to larger knuckles?

Many of today's senior managers in casinos have an educational background similar to yours instead of coming up through the gaming floor. I was just curious if, given your passion for gaming, you have ever thought about crossing over into casino management.

I openly acknowledge that I offer consulting services to casinos and gambling businesses. I need to do this because the revenue from this site isn't sufficient to support my family. My bankroll isn't large enough to solely rely on professional gambling for my living. Nevertheless, I don't excuse my actions. To address your inquiry, yes, I would consider working in casino management if the right opportunity presented itself.

Have you ever encountered any particularly silly questions?

Don’t get me started.

Briefs.

Given your prominent reputation and expertise in gambling, statistics, house odds, and related subjects, do local casinos still permit you to play at their blackjack tables, considering your well-known skills as a card counter?

Recently, I watched an episode featuring a high-roller, I believe, playing blackjack. He seemed to lose increasingly and began tearing up the cards! I assumed this was a significant breach of etiquette, if not a violation of gaming regulations, but when asked to stop, he was outraged by the request! Is such behavior generally tolerated, or is this person simply accustomed to getting away with it because of his substantial losses, or is it something else entirely?

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My current publication measures 5.5 inches by 8.5 inches. Unfortunately, I don't have any plans to release another one in the near future.

I developed my own combinatorial software that examines every possible event, keeping track of outcomes as they relate to their probabilities. Unless it concerns re-splitting pairs, I can confidently state that my figures are accurate.

The few instances in which I play a game with negative expectation are purely for entertainment value.

But it is so much fun.

Your website is fascinating. Do you earn a living by gambling? Have you considered the odds in trading stock index futures?

Are your craps probability calculations with odds completely reliable? Is working in the gaming industry your full-time job, and do you frequently visit Atlantic City? Also, how do you simulate countless hands, spins, and rolls? Is that done through a computer program and if so, what software do you use?

[Update: The Wizard’s book Gambling 102 was published in Spring 2005.]

Will you let us know when your segment airs on the travel channel?

What’s the largest sum of money you've ever walked away with after a blackjack game?

Michael, I saw your segment on the travel channel from Las Vegas recently, where you shared your insights on house advantage. Great job! I didn't realize you were so young. While playing craps at the new Seneca/Niagara casino, I told the dealer to have the odds working on a don't come bet during the come out roll. He mentioned that the odds are always working for that specific bet. Was he right?

For individuals who sometimes gamble too much and later regret it, I recommend establishing some limits. For example, you might set a specific loss cap at $200. Personally, I don't impose those kinds of limits on myself. If my losses reach a point where I'm no longer having fun, I'll just take a break for that reason.

You're right that I tend to be vague about money management. Unlike many gambling authors, I don't stress the specifics of how much one should bet or when to leave a table. For recreational players, there's no money management technique that can significantly alter the house edge over time, so why focus on it? While I provide detailed advice on gameplay, how much you choose to wager is really up to individual preference. After all, there should be some freedom in gambling. However, I do advise that if you've lost enough that gambling no longer feels enjoyable, it’s time to step away.

1. I'm a big fan of your website. This morning, I was going through your
2. and noticed how your experiences often lead to losing everything you deposit. That was somewhat disheartening. Then I came across your request for donations and it clicked why you do that!
3. Since I began gambling online four years ago, I have gained approximately $20,000, with about half of that amount coming from Golden Palace. What you read in my reviews reflects only my latest experiences; like everyone, I face losing streaks sometimes. However, I recently earned $786 at
4. and $2317 at Casino Kingdom. Therefore, my request for donations is not to support a losing gambling habit. Donations simply aid in maintaining this website for free to the public. Although I typically receive donations via PayPal, I mostly use those funds to shop on eBay.
5. Does cracking your knuckles actually lead to larger knuckles?

Contrary to what many believe, I am of the opinion that cracking your knuckles is completely safe. My chiropractor has cracked my back and neck numerous times, and it has significantly improved my condition.

A lot of senior executives in casinos share educational backgrounds similar to yours rather than moving up through the gaming industry. I was curious if, given your interest in gaming, you have ever thought about crossing over to the management side of casinos.

Have you ever encountered any particularly foolish questions?

Because it is so much fun!

Given your reputation and esteemed knowledge about gambling, statistics, and house odds, do local casinos still permit you to play at their blackjack tables, especially since you are an experienced counter?

Recently, I watched an episode featuring a so-called 'high-roller' at the blackjack tables. The individual began losing more frequently and started tearing the cards up! I would have assumed that such behavior was a serious breach of etiquette, if not against gaming regulations. However, when asked to stop tearing up the cards, he reacted with surprise and insult. Is this typical behavior that others may have observed but isn't often discussed, or is this particular person simply accustomed to being allowed such actions due to losing large sums of money?

By the way, I will be appearing on The Casino this season. The storyline revolves around some college students who are aiming to transform $1000 into $5000 as swiftly as possible. They seek my insights on reaching this ambitious target.

Yes, I'm scheduled to appear in an upcoming episode of The Casino, though I don't have the specific air date yet. My role is to guide some college students as they attempt to turn $1000 into $5000. I share your view that American Casino is the superior program. Double Double Bonus Poker Typically, how much time do you find yourself spending in casinos? Of that time, how much is dedicated to watching or observing?

Since your focus seems to be on gaining an advantage over the house, do you find yourself playing just for enjoyment at any point, whether it's at table games, on slots, or in poker? Or is your play strictly limited to counting blackjack or playing progressive video poker up to a certain target? Or do you refrain from playing altogether? I think many of your followers would find that interesting, though you might prefer to keep your hosts unaware!

Republican Primary

Candidate	Probability
Giuliani	40.0%
Thompson	8.4%
Romney	28.5%
Paul	6.7%
McCain	7.0%

Democratic Primary

Candidate	Probability
Clinton	71.0%
Obama	12.3%
Gore	8.2%
Edwards	4.9%

Party to Win

Candidate	Probability
Democrat	63.0%
Republican	35.8%
Other	1.2%

You can use my sports betting appendix 5 I only play for fun when I'm entertaining someone visiting Las Vegas and we hit the casinos together. Otherwise, I always seek out a strategic edge. Sometimes, I try out new games to familiarize myself with the rules. While I prefer to keep the specifics of my strategies under wraps, I can say that both card counting and positive expectation video poker are part of my approach.

Yes, I provide all that information. If some not-so-reputable casinos discover you’ve given false details, they may use that to avoid paying out your winnings. Moreover, personal info is relatively easy for those intent on identity theft to obtain. A while back, Crazy Vegas casino even requested my Social Security number, which I felt was over the line, so I provided a fake one instead. And whenever asked for my mother's maiden name, I just mention my cat's name. this video In one of your earlier articles, you referenced a manuscript for a book that you weren't able to publish. What was the book about? Is it available anywhere? I'm curious because about two decades ago, I drafted a book on odds and gambling that aimed to simplify Allan Wilson’s work. I reached out to Stanford Wong, seeking his feedback, and while he was open to reviewing it, he advised against writing it altogether, suggesting there were already too many gambling books out there. As a result, I abandoned the idea of publishing.

In 2007 the highest tax bracket Yes, I wrote a manuscript on gambling four years ago and pitched it to different publishers, with Huntington Press being the only one willing to take it on. However, after three years and four revisions, the book has yet to be published. The market is already saturated with gambling literature, so I ponder Stanford's advice of not spending your time on it. I’ve since come to realize that an author's name carries more weight in sales than the actual content. An unknown author faces significant challenges in publishing any gambling-related book. If you’re looking to publish, consider establishing your notoriety first. standard deduction The Daniel Rainsong challenge was intriguing. After some reflection, I’ve come to two conclusions: 1. Daniel sought a professional assessment of his betting system to validate its positive expectation; 2. He deemed it more favorable to risk $2000 for a potential $20000 return than to pay someone like you to evaluate his strategy. I’m uncertain about your fees for game analysis, but I suspect they might exceed $2000 in this case. Hence, utilizing the Wizard’s Challenge was a clever strategy on his part, regardless of the slim odds of success. Moreover, your choice to take on the challenge and forgo the surrender option demonstrated even greater foresight. Ironically, this narrative may generate even more poorly conceived systems. What’s your take on that?

I offered Mr. Rainsong a straightforward no-bet analysis for $1000, which he turned down, firmly believing in his chances of success. It's true that those who possess less evidence are often the most fervent believers. My typical fee for analyzing games exceeds $2000, but this instance involved a mere simulation. All I needed to do was adapt my existing blackjack simulator to the rules of his strategy. Not surprisingly, even though Mr. Rainsong's system didn’t pass my evaluations, he still garnered numerous interested parties. My responsibility is to convey the reality that systems fail over time. What people choose to do with my insights is up to them. Social Security tax If you were to wager $50 on each play, which option would you prefer between these two video poker games (assuming both feature identical payout schedules and you wager five coins per hand): single-play at $10 or ten-play at $1 per hand? I appreciate your time and consideration.

In theory, both options offer the same expected payout. However, I would favor the ten-play option due to lower volatility, and I find it to be more enjoyable.

Thank you for sharing your knowledge! I value it greatly. One question I imagine you get asked frequently, yet it’s not covered on your site, is... How much have you profited from gambling? With your extensive involvement, has it been worth it? Is there still a house edge, even with all your expertise? Or do you turn a profit, albeit insufficient to live comfortably off of it? Additionally, if financial security were not a concern, would you still continue to teach and share your knowledge?

I dedicate considerable time to analyzing bets and do reasonably well, but it is insufficient for a living. For example, last year my bets won a total of $26,843.14; however, I also lost $9,491.50 supporting other gamblers when I believed I had an edge. I'm currently focused on growing my bankroll and exploring more profitable opportunities to hopefully increase the proportion of income I earn through gambling in the future. It's important to highlight that while gaining an advantage over the casino is attainable, it demands significant effort for relatively minor benefits. Should I reach a point where gambling allows me to maintain a living, I still plan to keep my website active and continue teaching my casino math course at UNLV. However, I aim to phase out my consulting work and eventually stop once other income streams take precedence.

I came across the fact that your Ties Win Blackjack is undergoing field trials in Laughlin, Nevada. What type of permit was necessary for that, and what did it cost?

A specific permit for trialing a new game was necessary, as opposed to a 'variation' permit, which is cheaper. For a new game, the permit fee is $3000, and I had to complete an extensive array of documentation, including a detailed employment and residency history for the last 20 years. The waiting period to receive approval was six months, which was actually shorter than my initial expectations.

I have finally secured a job in Vegas, and my family will be relocating within the next month. Which neighborhoods in Vegas are considered nice, and are there any areas that are less desirable?

For families, the most desirable neighborhoods are indeed Henderson and Summerlin. Personally, I reside in a planned community known as Peccole Ranch, which is adjacent to Summerlin. From my perspective, the west side, where I live, is superior because:

It has a similar aesthetic to Orange County, California, while much of Henderson appears quite uniform and generic. gambling fallacies .

Best Regards,

Kevin A. (Dallas)

1. The two-player table Although some residents from Henderson might argue that their area experiences less traffic, I believe that both sides have valid points, and personally, I find the west side preferable in this regard as well. I’m sure I’ll receive feedback from someone in Henderson about this, and I am open to sharing counterarguments in the future, as I support presenting all viewpoints. three to eight The less desirable parts of Vegas are primarily around downtown, with the environment gradually improving as you move farther out. In terms of growth, there are numerous developments happening on the south side along I-15 and the north side along U.S. 95.
2. Are you a true Packers fan? I am. It seems like you're betting based on loyalty, and unfortunately, the Packers are not performing to expectations.
3. . It's impressive to see such a high percentage, even considering that the Packers didn't perform as expected for you. I thought you might find that observation interesting. May 1999 This isn't about being loyal to a team. My assessment ranked them as the fifth best team following the end of the 2004 season, and I've continued to apply that ranking into the 2005 season. However, perhaps my approach is not responsive enough to more recent developments in the league, which is something I need to consider further. 2005 season , which was an abject failure.

You've openly acknowledged that you utilize card counting strategies in casinos. What’s the reason casinos still allow you to play? UCSB I was once recognized in Reno while counting cards, possibly because a dealer who knew me personally reported it. It’s quite a lengthy and unusual tale. In any case, I don't gamble frequently or at high stakes, so the risk I pose to the casino is quite minimal, and it wouldn’t be worth their while to remember another face. Social Security Administration As a dealer, I hear players often talking about 'Fuzzy Math' and I consistently check your website when I have inquiries regarding game odds. I only give advice if someone specifically asks for it, as I believe people should have the freedom to spend their hard-earned money however they want. My curiosity lies in whether you find yourself cringing when someone at the table makes a mathematical mistake, and if so, do you choose to remain quiet, or do you correct them?

I tend to cringe and remain silent. It’s my principle not to offer advice unless requested. Why start a debate? Furthermore, my goal isn’t to persuade everyone to adopt the best strategies. Casinos need poor gamblers to support the successful ones.

Second, at least consider the National Security Agency I've been a devoted fan for many years. I appreciate your continued innovation. I just caught a program on CGTV (Canadian Gaming TV) called 'Casino Life' that focused on Caribbean Stud Poker. The host praised you and your website, mentioning your strategy for the game. Later, I noticed that you were acknowledged. Does this recognition bring you any income, or is it simply beneficial publicity?

I appreciate the kind feedback. Yes, I did grant Casino Life permission to feature my material, and I'm pleased they provided such a positive mention. However, they did not compensate me for it, nor have I ever received payment for my appearances on the Travel Channel in the United States. I participate mainly for the enjoyment and exposure.

On the 'Vegas FAQ' segment of the Travel Channel, you suggested the use of certain machines. However, the specific machine you showcased had a short payout in the 9-6 category, paying only 1 for two pairs instead of the standard 2, thus giving the house an additional 5% edge. It’s a common trick casinos employ to adjust the house advantage.

What are your thoughts regarding bets on presidential futures? For example, betting on which candidate might win their primary or the overall election? Is there a way to calculate the house edge in such situations? Would you seriously contemplate engaging in these kinds of bets for actual money? Personally, I think observing betting lines could provide better insights into election outcomes compared to polls. Do you believe there’s merit in that?

1. Absolutely, I do place bets on elections. My largest wager yet was in 1996 when I bet on Clinton to beat Dole at even odds. That turned out to be one of my most prudent bets. I've been placing wagers in every election since then, usually against friends. On prominent online platforms that accept political bets, I feel the market is nearly efficient. Basically, it seems to be on point, and those odds can be indicative of each candidate's probability of winning. Presently, I find TradeSports to be a reliable source for election odds. As I write this on September 29, 2007, the odds reflect certain probabilities of victory.
   
   (1) c+s=57
   (2) c-5=s
   Substituting equation (2) in equation (1):
   c+(c-5)=57
   2c-5=57
   2c=62
   c=31
   s=31-5=26
   
   When it comes to calculating the overall house edge for any type of futures wager, particularly in politics, my intuition suggests that generally, backing the front-runners may be the way to go. For instance, I would gladly purchase a contract on Hillary Clinton if I had a TradeSports account. Just my two cents.
   
   
2. It's been noted that Warren Buffet, the world's third wealthiest individual, expressed frustration that he only pays a 17.7% federal tax rate, while his secretary pays 30%. I find that to be quite shocking. Could you provide your insights?
3. Typically, I would say this topic lies outside my expertise. However, having worked as a government actuary for eight years, I possess some knowledge about taxes. From my research, I’ve come across information suggesting that most of Warren Buffett’s income is categorized as capital gains, which are taxed at a mere 15%. As surprising as it may be, that’s what the tax laws permit. What perplexes me is why his secretary's rate would be as high as 30%. According to reports, she was calculating 'payroll and income taxes,' which likely included Social Security and Medicare taxes. So, let’s examine whether 30% is a reasonable overall federal tax rate for her.
4. Buffett's income could have been taxed at 35%, but that only applies to income exceeding $349,700. Income up to that threshold is taxed at considerably lower rates. Let’s assume his secretary was single, without dependent children, and earning $100,000. Initially, we can deduct the standard deductions; in 2007, for single filers, the minimum deduction was $5,350, and the personal exemption was $3,400. Thus, we arrive at $100,000 - $5,350 - $3,400 = $91,250 in income subject to taxation. The tax rates in 2007 for single filers were 10% for the first $7,825 of income, followed by 15% up to $31,850, 25% up to $77,100, and then 28% up to $160,850. So her projected income tax would be calculated as =0.1*$7,825 + 0.15*($31,850-$7,825) + 0.25*($77,100-$31,850) + 0.28*($91,250-$77,100) = $19,660.75. This makes it only 19.7% of her total income. All my assumptions, including her income level, filing status, or not itemizing deductions, worked against her or supported a higher tax rate.
5. Now let's consider the Social Security and Medicare contributions, which in 2007 had a rate of 6.2% for incomes up to $97,500, after which it ceases to apply. The 2007 Medicare tax was 1.45%, without a cap. Therefore, her total tax for Social Security and Medicare would be calculated as 6.2% * $97,500 + 1.45% * $100,000 = $7,495. Including these taxes, her total tax rate comes to ($19,660.75 + $7,495)/$100,000 = 27.2%. However, that still leaves us 2.8% short of the 30% mark.
6. My hypothesis is that she might also be accounting for the employer's contribution toward Social Security and Medicare taxes as part of her own tax burden. For those unfamiliar, these taxes are effectively doubled since employers cover half of them. Nevertheless, there’s an argument to be made that ultimately, employees bear the cost entirely. It’s a sentiment I can empathize with, particularly as a self-employed individual who pays both portions. If we consider the total of Social Security and Medicare taxes, then the rate becomes ($19,660.75 + 2*$7,495)/$100,000 = 34.7%. I suspect the 4.7% discrepancy arises from her earning less than $100,000, being married, having dependent children, itemizing deductions, or some mix of these factors.
7. Warren Buffett is unlikely to be affected by Social Security and Medicare taxes. Firstly, the wage cap of $97,500 wouldn't significantly apply to him. Secondly, these taxes are exclusively for wages, not capital gains, which comprise the vast majority of his income.

Thus, this represents my best guess regarding the calculations behind Mr. Buffett's remarks.

Update: Soon after this column was published, I received the following reply. To maintain fairness, I'm sharing this perspective that argues Mr. Buffett is overpaying his taxes.

I found your response to the 'outraged' individual who believes it's unjust that Warren Buffett pays a lower percentage in taxes than his secretary to be quite intriguing. I was disappointed, however, that your answer did not address the misinformation suggesting that Mr. Buffett pays less tax than his secretary.

One-Team Total	Total in Sample	Probability
0	93	1.75%
1	0	0.00%
2	0	0.00%
3	148	2.79%
4	0	0.00%
5	2	0.04%
6	114	2.15%
7	210	3.96%
8	9	0.17%
9	76	1.43%
10	316	5.96%
11	9	0.17%
12	49	0.92%
13	289	5.45%
14	238	4.49%
15	55	1.04%
16	170	3.21%
17	373	7.03%
18	33	0.62%
19	92	1.73%
20	368	6.94%
21	234	4.41%
22	64	1.21%
23	218	4.11%
24	347	6.54%
25	47	0.89%
26	103	1.94%
27	282	5.32%
28	159	3.00%
29	52	0.98%
30	127	2.39%
31	242	4.56%
32	23	0.43%
33	57	1.07%
34	164	3.09%
35	76	1.43%
36	27	0.51%
37	68	1.28%
38	108	2.04%
39	11	0.21%
40	21	0.40%
41	62	1.17%
42	31	0.58%
43	6	0.11%
44	24	0.45%
45	33	0.62%
46	1	0.02%
47	7	0.13%
48	28	0.53%
49	15	0.28%
50	1	0.02%
51	5	0.09%
52	7	0.13%
53	0	0.00%
54	2	0.04%
55	1	0.02%
56	4	0.08%
57	1	0.02%
58	1	0.02%
59	1	0.02%
Total	5304	100.00%

Firstly, as you rightly mentioned, investment income is taxed at 15%. This is effectively double taxation since the earned income that Mr. Buffett invested was initially taxed at his marginal rate of 36%. This comparison is akin to juxtaposing apples and oranges (earned income against investment income). Wizard of Vegas .

I just wanted to highlight that solely focusing on 'percentage' without considering 'actual payout' is logically flawed. It’s similar to many of your other observations. video about it.

Hi there! I'm a seventh grader from Hawaii working on a science fair project about poker and shuffling techniques. I'm utilizing your charts that detail the win percentages of specific Texas Hold 'Em hands based on the number of players participating in the game. I was wondering if you could clarify a few questions to assist me with my project: video of that.

How did you determine the percentages displayed in the charts?

• Climb Mount Rainier
• Climb Mount Adams
• Climb Pico de Orizaba
• Climb Mount Aconcagua
• Clinb Mount Kilimanjaro
• Hike the John Muir Trail
• Hike the Appalachian Trail
• Unicycle the Camino de Santiago .
• If you employed a computer program for this, what was the development process like and how long did it take to complete?

You mentioned that the Wizard of Odds began as a pastime. Did your experimentation change as your site gained popularity? If so, how and why? Here are some peaks I have already climbed.

larger player pools, cycling through each possibility would have consumed an impractical amount of time, which is why I opted for a random simulation instead.