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Ask The Wizard #86

You've created an impressive website that serves as a valuable resource for those interested in gambling, and I greatly appreciate your efforts. I have a couple of brief inquiries. On the video poker portion of your site, you mention the staggering figure of 19,933,230,517,200 possible outcomes. Could you clarify how you arrived at this number? Additionally, I'm curious about whether video poker games utilize a Random Number Generator (RNG) similar to that of slot machines, or is the process different in this case?

anonymous

In response to your first question, when selecting 5 cards from a standard deck of 52, there are exactly 2,598,960 different combinations for the initial hand. As for the replacement cards, depending on how many cards the player retains, there can be 1, 47, 1,081, 16,215, 178,365, or 1,533,939 different ways to draw them. The lowest common denominator among these is 7,669,695, and thus the total combinations multiply together as follows: 2,596,960 times 7,669,695 equals 19,933,230,517,200. Regarding your second question, video poker machines generate random numbers that correspond to cards from a selection of 1 to 52. The process behind these random number generators is quite intricate, but the fundamental goal remains straightforward.

I find your website to be outstanding. I would like to ask if using match play alters the basic strategy in any significant way. My intuition suggests that opting for surrender becomes less advantageous, especially if it means giving up your coupon.

anonymous

Thank you for your kind words. You are correct that opting for surrender should be avoided if it results in losing the match play benefit. While there are additional strategic adjustments to consider, I haven't compiled a definitive list. Typically, casinos prohibit doubling the match play chip, which would also reduce your inclination to double your bets. Stanford Wong’s 'Basic Blackjack' offers guidance on when it’s permissible to double if doubling the match play is an option. My recommendation is to apply the match play to the Player's bet in baccarat.

If ten individuals are each dealt two cards from a single deck, what are the chances that two of those players will receive a pair of aces?

anonymous

Initially, there are 10 * 9 / 2 = 45 combinations to choose 2 players from the total of 10. The likelihood of two specific players drawing four aces is 1 divided by the combination of 52 taken 4 at a time, which is 1/270725. Therefore, the probability of any two players obtaining a pair of aces is 45/270725, equating to approximately 0.0001662.

How do you go about calculating the expected return for a blackjack game that features a 0.5% house edge, with a 20x play requirement and an initial bankroll, including a bonus, of $1000? Does the betting method—whether through flat betting or following the Kelly criterion—affect the outcome, or does the Kelly criterion purely relate to the risk of losing everything?

anonymous

The anticipated loss from this gameplay is calculated as 0.005 multiplied by 20 and then by $1000, resulting in $100. The method of betting does not change your expected loss, but it will influence the level of volatility experienced.

I understand that casinos place a considerable emphasis on calculating a player's theoretical value. I'm guessing that my theoretical worth is directly linked to how compatible I am with the house’s interests. If I am an average player wagering $10.00 in Blackjack over a duration of about 3 hours per visit, what formula do casinos typically employ to ascertain my theoretical value? Thanks for your assistance.

anonymous

Indeed, casinos do assess the value of a player's betting activity and typically offer comps in the range of about 33% to 40% of that value. Based on the information I have, casinos generally operate under an expected house edge of 0.75% in blackjack. Therefore, in your scenario, your estimated betting value would be 0.0075 multiplied by $10 multiplied by 60 multiplied by 3, yielding $13.50. If the casino provides a third of that value as a comp, you could anticipate receiving a comp equivalent to around $4.50. However, many establishments prefer to avoid dealing with such relatively minor comps. theoretical house edge table In a piece featured in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the journalist states, 'A 500-year flood is defined as having a 1-in-500 chance of occurring in any given year. This can also be viewed as a 1-in-10 chance over 50 years, or a 1-in-5 chance across a century.' After examining your gambling articles, I suspect this explanation is flawed, correct? Following their logic, it would imply a certainty of experiencing a flood once in every 500 years, which seems implausible.

You are correct; that article contains inaccuracies. The probability of experiencing at least one 500-year flood within any given period can be mathematically calculated as 1 minus e raised to the power of negative rate. Thus, the chance of witnessing at least one 500-year flood over the course of 50 years is approximately 9.52%, and over 100 years, it's around 18.13%.

anonymous

Here, you can find mathematically sound strategies and insights regarding various casino games, including blackjack, craps, roulette, and many more options that can be enjoyed.-x/500Please check your inbox for an email and click on the link we provided to finalize your registration process.