Ask The Wizard #8
I began to enjoy playing poker weekly with my friends, engaging in games such as five-card draw, stud, and seven-card stud. With a total of seven players seated at the table, I'm concerned that the chances of achieving strong hands might significantly lessen due to the number of players each drawing from the same 52-card deck. Is there a specific mathematical formula that could guide me in understanding this better?
The likelihood of receiving any specific hand remains unchanged, regardless of how many players are participating. The existence of an unseen card doesn't alter that fact—whether it belongs to another player or remains hidden in the deck, its impact is the same.
Fantastic website! I would like to hear your insights on the concept of card clumping. The theories I came across suggest there might be validity regarding how dealers handle the cards (prioritizing naturals, followed by breaks, and then standing hands) and the inadequacy of shuffling eight-deck shoes to achieve true randomness. This could result in a decreased chance for the dealer to bust, which may undermine the effectiveness of Basic Strategy. Keep up the excellent work!
While I haven't done extensive research on card clumping, I personally believe it doesn't constitute a genuine strategy for taking advantage of the game. None of the professional gamblers or respected authors I've encountered have shown any regard for the concept of card clumping.
I noticed on your page for Three Card Poker You've suggested sticking with Q/6/4. However, a dealer in Tunica mentioned Q/J. Could you explain this discrepancy? Is the recommendation of Q/6/4 founded on actual data derived from computer simulations? It seems like a straightforward game with favorable odds against the house, without requiring significant skill. What are your thoughts on this?
I firmly believe that Q/6/4 represents the best possible strategy for three card poker. Stanley Ko also independently arrived at the same conclusion. This strategy is based on a computer program that evaluates all 22,100 variations of the player's three cards, and for each, the remaining 18,424 variations of the dealer's three cards.
If you adhere to the dealer's strategy, you might end up folding on some hands that actually have a positive expected return greater than -1 (the loss incurred by folding). However, this shouldn't have a major impact on your overall results.