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Ask The Wizard #75
I've come across numerous NFL betting experts who flaunt their winning pick percentages. What are the chances that a player randomly choosing selections would achieve 50%, 55%, and 60% wins over 1, 3, and 5 seasons?
The table below illustrates the likelihood of reaching each win percentage from 50% to 60%, increasing by 1% for seasons ranging from 1 to 5. This analysis is based on a total of 259 games per season, and I've rounded the figures down for simplicity. For instance, if an expert forecasts correctly on 132 of the 259 games, resulting in a winning percentage of 50.97%, they would officially be credited with only 50% because they didn’t meet the 51% threshold. It wouldn't surprise me if these confident experts were doing some creative rounding in their favor.
Assessing the Probabilities of Winning Percentages for NFL Handicappers
| Ratio | 1 Seasons | 2 Seasons | 3 Seasons | 4 Seasons | 5 Seasons |
| 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.517523 | 0.5 | 0.512393 | 0.5 |
| 0.51 | 0.354641 | 0.314437 | 0.282985 | 0.257059 | 0.234993 |
| 0.52 | 0.267178 | 0.178085 | 0.125486 | 0.101366 | 0.074229 |
| 0.53 | 0.160065 | 0.086589 | 0.049447 | 0.025155 | 0.015098 |
| 0.54 | 0.106982 | 0.035817 | 0.013066 | 0.004959 | 0.001926 |
| 0.55 | 0.053095 | 0.012519 | 0.002569 | 0.000687 | 0.000152 |
| 0.56 | 0.023385 | 0.00282 | 0.000373 | 0.000051 | 0.000007 |
| 0.57 | 0.012645 | 0.00067 | 0.000053 | 0.000003 | 0 |
| 0.58 | 0.00453 | 0.000133 | 0.000004 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.59 | 0.00213 | 0.000022 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.6 | 0.000617 | 0.000003 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Do you have any insights into how online casinos report gambling winnings to the IRS? I would appreciate any details you can share. Thank you!
I'm fairly certain that none of them disclose any of this information.
I often visit the casinos and I've noticed that players seem to have good luck on the quarter video keno machines. Do you have any advice on which numbers are worth playing? I've observed that certain numbers appear more often than others.
I don't believe that any specific numbers have a higher likelihood of appearing. My suggestion is to choose any numbers since it really doesn't matter.
Regarding the initial table for the Basic Strategy in Spanish 21, I have some inquiries that I would greatly appreciate your insights on (standard rules, dealer hits on soft 17):
Question 1: Concerning 17 against Ace (your mention - Rh). If the player opts not to surrender (or double down on the surrender), should they indeed take a hit? I ask because I find this ambiguous - Scoblete's book advises standing on 17 against Ace, as does Norm Wattenberger's strategy table in CVBJ3.
Question 2: Your comments on the 6-7-8 bonuses. Do these also apply to the 7-7-7 bonuses? For example, does * indicate 'Hit if any 6-7-8 [OR 7-7-7] bonus is available'?
Question 3: Scoblete’s Spanish 21 book states to hit on a 9 against a 6 if the player has a three-card total of 9. Should I disregard this advice, along with the 'don't double down rescue' recommendation mentioned in his book?
I apologize for intruding with these questions, but I have a Spanish 21 tournament approaching and I would benefit from any assistance you can provide. Thank you very much.
- Yes, you should definitely hit. I think anyone who disagrees is mistaken.
- No, the 7-7-7 bonus can only occur with an initial pair of sevens. The correct strategy is reflected in that particular row.
- Yes, you should ignore this advice.
The Kelly betting strategy relies on having a favorable edge to be beneficial. I enjoy playing craps and manage to keep the house's edge under 1%. Each week, I receive $62 in comps. I bet only for about 1.5 hours and my total stakes rarely exceed $3,000. In theory, I profit around $30 per session. Would the Kelly strategy be effective for my situation?
Unless safeguarding your bankroll is a top priority, the Kelly betting approach may not be advantageous. I would recommend using a flat betting method instead. It's a clever tactic to take advantage of the comp system.
What benefits, if any, does the house gain when utilizing a six-spot layout compared to a seven-spot layout?
In a seven-spot game, they can facilitate more hands each hour. However, the advantage per hand remains consistent. Personally, I'm not fond of these seven-spot tables.