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Ask The Wizard #57
Before I dive into my inquiries, I must express that your website is outstanding! I have two questions related to craps that I hope you can clarify:
1) You choose to include the come out roll of 12 when calculating the house edge for the don’t pass bet. If someone decided to exclude it from the calculation, would the house edge for the pass line, when accounting for full double odds, be exactly equivalent to that of the don’t pass line with full double odds?
2) If player x places come bets (with full double odds) after initially betting the pass line with full double odds, does that affect the overall house edge against player x? For example, if player x's house edge is 0.572% with only a pass line bet at full double odds, would it become more complicated if they added two come bets also with full double odds?
I appreciate your kind remarks. Here are my responses to your questions.
1. Defining house edge as the expected loss per unresolved wager (excluding ties), the don’t pass bet has a house edge of 1.40%, which is slightly less than the 1.41% for the pass line bet. If players are allowed to wager more on the don’t pass side, a situation more common in physical casinos, then the total house edge favors the don’t pass side as the multipliers of odds increase.
2. Assuming a player keeps their odds active during a come out roll, adding come bets backed by those odds won't alter the overall house edge. However, if the odds are turned off, which is the standard rule, then introducing come bets can slightly increase the overall house edge.
Will you inform us when you’ll appear on the travel channel?
I plan to update my newsletter subscribers about it. However, since you asked, it is expected to air around April or May, in a segment titled something along the lines of \"The Top Ten Ways to Win.\" I have participated in radio and television interviews in the past, but I find it uncomfortable to watch or listen to myself afterward. I always feel I could have performed better, so I don’t intend to make a big deal out of it.
I found your guidance on tipping very informative. My query is about how to tip when playing at a blackjack table. Where should I place the tip, when is the right time to give it, and how much should it be?
Typically, players will place a bet for the dealer, which involves setting the tip on the edge of the betting circle, close to where the dealer can see it. Visualize the tip as revolving around your wager, with the betting circle serving as its orbital path. If you decide to double down, you may choose to also double the dealer’s tip. If you split your hand, it’s essential to make another bet for the dealer. Sometimes, when a player leaves the table, they might just leave a tip for the dealer similar to how one would in a restaurant.
Last week, I played 'let it ride' on a video slot machine, and someone mentioned I’d have better chances at a table with six players since there would be more cards displayed (counting 20 instead of 5). Is this correct?
Not quite. Unless you can actually see and utilize the other players’ cards in your overall strategy, the number of opponents at the table does not significantly impact your odds.
I recently read an article that suggests it’s considered proper basic strategy to stand on a multi-card total of 16, which contains a 4 or 5, against a dealer’s 10 in a multi-deck (four or more decks) blackjack game. I looked through your site but only found guidance for multi-card hands in 1 and 2 deck games. Is this article accurate?
Absolutely! Great question; I wasn't even aware of this detail. The fewer decks are in play and the more cards involved, the more accurate it becomes. To investigate the scenario favoring hitting, particularly with 8 decks and only 3 cards, I ran all possible outcomes through my combinational software. The following table presents the findings.
Expected Values for 3-card 16 Against 10 in an 8-deck Game
| Hand | EV Hit | EV Stand | Best Play |
Probability | Return Hit |
Return Stand |
| 1/5/10 | -0.540978 | -0.539872 | Stand | 0.132024 | -0.071422 | -0.071276 |
| 1/6/9 | -0.536558 | -0.540151 | Hit | 0.059837 | -0.032106 | -0.032321 |
| 1/7/8 | -0.537115 | -0.537003 | Stand | 0.059837 | -0.032139 | -0.032133 |
| 2/4/10 | -0.540947 | -0.541 | Hit | 0.237478 | -0.128463 | -0.128475 |
| 2/5/9 | -0.542105 | -0.540534 | Stand | 0.039891 | -0.021625 | -0.021563 |
| 2/6/8 | -0.537701 | -0.540773 | Hit | 0.059837 | -0.032174 | -0.032358 |
| 2/7/7 | -0.538271 | -0.537584 | Stand | 0.028983 | -0.015601 | -0.015581 |
| 3/3/10 | -0.540385 | -0.540995 | Hit | 0.115028 | -0.06216 | -0.06223 |
| 3/4/9 | -0.541769 | -0.540536 | Stand | 0.059837 | -0.032418 | -0.032344 |
| 3/5/8 | -0.54295 | -0.540022 | Stand | 0.039891 | -0.021659 | -0.021542 |
| 3/6/7 | -0.538575 | -0.540228 | Hit | 0.059837 | -0.032227 | -0.032326 |
| 4/4/8 | -0.543188 | -0.54003 | Stand | 0.028983 | -0.015743 | -0.015652 |
| 4/5/7 | -0.544396 | -0.539483 | Stand | 0.039891 | -0.021717 | -0.021521 |
| 4/6/6 | -0.539446 | -0.542878 | Hit | 0.028983 | -0.015635 | -0.015735 |
| 5/5/6 | -0.545033 | -0.542137 | Stand | 0.009661 | -0.005266 | -0.005238 |
| Total | 1 | -0.540355 | -0.540293 |
The two values shown on the bottom row indicate that the overall expected value for hitting stands at -0.540355, whereas for standing, it’s -0.540293. Standing is, therefore, the marginally superior option. Adhering to this rule would yield an additional unit only once in every 1,117,910 hands. It would take approximately five years of playing blackjack for 40 hours a week to see this strategy save the player one unit.
What is the expected outcome of utilizing the Grand Martingale system in roulette?
The anticipated loss sits at 5.26% of the total money wagered. This holds true for ANY betting system following American roulette guidelines.