Ask The Wizard #52
I'm a fan of both Caribbean Stud and Blackjack. The risk level for Caribbean Stud is 2.56%, while for Blackjack it's significantly lower at 0.38%, creating a risk ratio of 6.7. If I place a bet of $15 on Blackjack and a $5 ante on Stud, risking $15 total per hand, does the increased frequency of Blackjack hands imply that my total bankroll loss will equalize due to that 6.7 ratio?
Not quite. To better assess potential losses, using the house edge is more effective. According to my findings on the house edge the house edge for Blackjack is around 0.43% (under Atlantic City regulations), whereas Caribbean Stud Poker has a much higher house edge of 5.22%. For instance, if you play one hand of Caribbean Stud with a $5 ante, your expected loss will be $5 multiplied by 5.22%, resulting in about 26.10 cents lost. In contrast, if you play 6.7 hands of Blackjack with a $15 bet each, your expected loss would total approximately 43.22 cents. Thus, in comparing these two games, you'd actually incur smaller losses while playing Caribbean Stud Poker. The house edge ratio shows Caribbean Stud Poker is roughly 12 times higher than that of Blackjack. Therefore, the expected loss from a single $1 bet on Caribbean Stud is comparable to that of a $12 bet on Blackjack.
Mr. Wizard, your website is incredibly insightful. There's a Keno game where we can place bets on HEAD, TAIL, or EVEN outcomes. HEAD indicates that 11 or more numbers come from the first forty drawn, while TAIL means those numbers come from the last forty. If exactly 10 numbers appear from both sections, that represents an EVEN outcome. With 20 numbers being drawn each round, what are the chances of each betting outcome winning? Additionally, considering your opinion on online casinos having a negative house edge, can players consistently achieve wins in Blackjack over the long haul?
The odds of drawing 'n' numbers from either the first or last set of forty, or any specific collection of forty numbers is calculated as combin(40,n)*combin(40,20-n)/combin(80,20). So, for precisely 10 numbers coming from the first forty (and 10 from the last), the calculation would be combin(40,10)*combin(40,10)/combin(80,20), yielding a result of approximately 0.203243. The probability that one half has more numbers than the other is 1 minus 0.203243, equating to roughly 0.796757. The chance of either half having more numbers is half of that probability, about 0.398378. If even money is paid out on this bet, the house edge would stand at 20.32%. Conversely, if the even bet pays 3 to 1, the house edge drops to 18.70%, and at 4 to 1, the player gains a 1.62% advantage. When it comes to online Blackjack, contending that the more a player engages, the higher their likelihood of turning a profit holds true. Presently, Unified Gaming's single deck game provides the best odds for players, with a leverage of 0.16%. Even so, if a player stakes on a million hands, about 8.6% would still result in a loss. With a player edge of 0.07% at Boss Media's single-player setup, the likelihood of incurring a loss after one million hands shoots up to around 27.5%.
I've recently perused Peter Griffin’s Theory of Blackjack and stumbled upon an interesting point toward the end of the book. In his evaluation of a baccarat counting system, to derive the true count, he suggested dividing the running count by the total number of cards left instead of the total number of decks remaining. Is this observation accurate? Thank you for your insights.
It's indeed more precise to divide by the total number of cards still in play. His aim was to demonstrate that baccarat is generally non-countable, even for an expert counter using a computer. Thus, crafting a more applicable counting method is unnecessary. If baccarat isn't considered worth playing for a perfect counter, it certainly won't appeal to an average player.
I've observed a trend at Boss Media's multiplayer casinos where dealers tend to reveal a ten or face card more frequently, which has been a concern among other players as well. Statistically, a dealer should present a face card about 4 out of every 13 times; does that seem reasonable? This mostly occurs when playing one to three hands against the dealer.
While I often discuss such inquiries in my previous columns and within well-documented sections, I'll provide some further commentary. For a valid assessment, you need to present specific figures. For instance, if you played 1,000 hands, you would typically expect to see a ten or face card appearing about 308 times. The probability that the actual number would fall within a range of 50 of 308 is an impressive 99.93%. Should your numbers deviate by more than 50, that's when we would start investigating. However, I can't ascertain details based on vague descriptions like 'the majority.' My FAQs outline how to compile data to test for online cheating. In closing, I strongly believe that Boss Media operates fairly. FAQ Providing mathematically sound strategies and insights for games offered in casinos, including blackjack, craps, roulette, and many others.