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Ask The Wizard #51
In your blackjack appendix 6 Regarding late surrender, you suggested that one should surrender with a 10+5 and 9+6 when facing a dealer's 10. In the basic strategy of Unified Gaming You recommended hitting on a 15 when the dealer shows a 10. I’m puzzled by this as to why hitting is preferred over surrendering in this scenario, considering that creating 15 with a 9+6 or a 10+5 seems to have a higher likelihood than achieving it with an 8+7.
This scenario is quite fascinating. While it's advised to surrender 5 out of 6 times with a 15 against a 10 in a single deck, it’s still statistically advantageous to hit rather than always surrender. The expected return for each method of forming a 15 will be illustrated below.
- 10+5
- -.501091
- 9+6
- -.509827
- 8+7
- -.474794
There are four different ways to create a 10+5 combination, while there’s only one way to achieve each of the other two combinations. Therefore, the expected return for hitting on a 15 against a dealer's 10 in a single deck can be calculated as (4/6)*-0.501091 + (1/6)*-0.509827 + (1/6)*-0.474794 = -0.498164. This indicates that while the odds slightly lean towards surrendering with a 10,5 and 9,6, hitting with an 8,7 is favored by a much greater margin. The reason for this is that more 5’s and 6’s remain in the deck, enhancing the chances of reaching a total of 20 or 21.
Can you provide me with a list of casinos that offer Super Fun 21?
I’ve encountered it at the Regent, New York New York, and Palace Station. I've also heard that it’s available at the Sunset Station and Santa Fe Station.
Your house edge calculator is fantastic! How can it be applied to games with continuous shuffling? Additionally, if a shoe is in use, how does that impact the house edge?
My house edge calculator is designed to work from the first hand dealt after a shuffle. This makes it ideal for games using a continuous shuffling machine. Contrary to common belief, the house edge tends to be slightly greater in hand-shuffled games compared to those using a continuous shuffling machine. I delve into this topic more extensively in my blackjack appendix 10 .