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Ask The Wizard #382

How many spins do you need, on average, to land five consecutive reds or blacks?

anonymous

The answer is 4,592,395/118,098 = 38.886306 spins.

Here is my solution (PDF).

This topic has been brought up and is under discussion in my forum located at Wizard of Vegas .

Imagine there's a blackjack promotion offering a substantial reward for achieving a total of 21 with at least five cards. The more cards that contribute to this total, the larger the reward. If a player adopts a '21 or bust' strategy, what are the chances of hitting 21 based on the number of cards used?

tooncestdc

The table below provides the findings from a simulation involving more than 60.5 billion rounds played with a six-deck shoe. The inverse column reflects the inverse probability. For instance, the odds of obtaining a six-card total of 21 are 1 in 280.

21 or Bust

Cards in 21 Count Probability Inverse
Bust 52,104,124,978 0.85994880549 1.16
3 4,759,037,984 0.07854520216 13
4 2,557,594,660 0.04221163821 24
5 908,819,311 0.01499954334 67
6 216,326,234 0.00357034086 280
7 38,049,196 0.00062798024 1,592
8 5,220,188 0.00008615622 11,607
9 572,119 0.00000944250 105,904
10 50,292 0.00000083004 1,204,760
11 3,487 0.00000005755 17,375,910
12 192 0.00000000317 315,571,868
13 14 0.00000000023 4,327,842,761
Total 60,589,798,655 1.00000000000

This topic has been brought up and is under discussion in my forum located at Wizard of Vegas .

8 / 2 * (2+2) =

anonymous

To start, you calculate the expression inside the parentheses, which is 2 + 2 equating to 4. After this step, we arrive at:

8 / 2 * 4 =

Then, we proceed with multiplication and division. If there are multiple operations, we handle them from left to right, kicking off with division. Thus, we compute 8 divided by 2, which gives us 4. At this stage, we have:

4 * 4 = 16

I've encountered a similar question on Facebook, where the most common answer, unfortunately, was incorrectly given as 1. I attribute this mistake to the PEMDAS (Please Excuse My Dear Aunt Sally) guideline, which misleads about the sequence of operations as: parentheses, exponents, division, multiplication, addition, and subtraction.

In truth, division and multiplication are considered on the same level, just as addition and subtraction are. When you face two operations of equal precedence in a single equation, you should work from left to right.

Consider a scenario with 100 mathematicians at a gathering and just one cake. They line up to receive a piece.

  • The initial mathematician takes 1% of the total cake available.
  • The second mathematician takes 2% of what remains after the first one's portion.
  • The third then takes 3% of the remainder following the first two mathematicians’ consumption.
  • The fourth mathematician obtains 4% of what's left after the previous three have taken their shares.

This pattern continues until the 100th mathematician takes the final 100% of what is left after the previous 99 mathematicians have had their share.

Which mathematician secures the most significant portion of cake? Calculators are not permitted!

PT

Let’s analyze the amount received by the first five mathematicians:

  1. 1%
  2. 99% * 2%
  3. 99% * 98% * 3%
  4. 99% * 98% * 97% * 4%
  5. 99% * 98% * 97% * 96% * 5%

Let f(x) = cake mathematician x gets.

Observing the trend, we see that f(x) equals f(x-1) divided by (x-1)/100, multiplied by (1 - (x-1)/100), then by (x/100).

Rearranging the terms:

f(x) = f(x-1) * (100/(x-1)) * ((101-x)/100) * (x/100)

Simplifying:

f(x) = f(x-1) * (101-x)/(x-1) * (x/100)

Let y = f(x) where f(x) = f(x-1)

y = y * (101-x)/(x-1) * (x/100)

Divide both sides by y.

1 = (101-x)/(x-1) * (x/100)

100*(x-1) = x * (101-x)

100x - 100 = 101x - x^2

x^2 - x - 100 = 0

Using the Pythagorean formula, x = (1 + sqrt(401))/2 = 10.512.

Initially, it’s clear that the portions increase, but at a certain point, they start to decline. The objective is to identify the last mathematician who receives a larger piece than the one before them.

By solving the equation for x, we demonstrate that the first ten mathematicians each receive greater shares than their predecessors. However, since 11 is greater than 10.512, the 11th mathematician receives less than the 10th.

Consequently, mathematician 10 winds up with the largest portion.

Here are the portions allocated to the first 20 (computed using a calculator).

  • Mathematician 1 = 0.01
  • Mathematician 2 = 0.0198
  • Mathematician 3 = 0.029106
  • Mathematician 4 = 0.03764376
  • Mathematician 5 = 0.045172512
  • Mathematician 6 = 0.0514966637
  • Mathematician 7 = 0.0564746745
  • Mathematician 8 = 0.0600245112
  • Mathematician 9 = 0.0621253691
  • Mathematician 10 = 0.062815651
  • Mathematician 11 = 0.0621874944
  • Mathematician 12 = 0.0603784037
  • Mathematician 13 = 0.0575607449
  • Mathematician 14 = 0.0539299902
  • Mathematician 15 = 0.0496926338
  • Mathematician 16 = 0.0450546547
  • Mathematician 17 = 0.0402112793
  • Mathematician 18 = 0.0353386184
  • Mathematician 19 = 0.0305875375
  • Mathematician 20 = 0.0260799004

This particular question has been discussed thoroughly in my forum at Wizard of Vegas .

This problem was taken from Mind Your Decisions .