Ask The Wizard #339
During Super Bowl 55, I noticed a bet placed on an unusual score combination that had never before occurred in the NFL, known as a Scorigami. Here are the details:
Yes: +1100
No: -1400
What do you make the odds?
Good question! Fortunately, there is NFL Scorigami which provides a tally of all possible score combinations in NFL history.
I'm sure the frequentists Some may disagree with my calculations, but I had to make certain assumptions to determine the likelihood of an unprecedented event.
To assess a specific team's scoring potential, I analyzed games from the NFL archives, particularly those played between 1994 and 2018. The reason for starting in 1994 is due to the implementation of the two-point conversion rule that year, which likely evened out the scoring distribution for teams. My analysis concluded with data from 2018 as that was the latest information I had access to. Here's what the scoring distribution looked like.
Individual NFL Team Scores 1994-2018
Points | Count | Probability |
---|---|---|
0 | 170 | 0.013490 |
1 | 0 | 0.000000 |
2 | 2 | 0.000159 |
3 | 303 | 0.024044 |
4 | 0 | 0.000000 |
5 | 5 | 0.000397 |
6 | 267 | 0.021187 |
7 | 420 | 0.033328 |
8 | 29 | 0.002301 |
9 | 188 | 0.014918 |
10 | 706 | 0.056023 |
11 | 32 | 0.002539 |
12 | 123 | 0.009760 |
13 | 646 | 0.051262 |
14 | 530 | 0.042057 |
15 | 128 | 0.010157 |
16 | 434 | 0.034439 |
17 | 892 | 0.070782 |
18 | 91 | 0.007221 |
19 | 282 | 0.022377 |
20 | 860 | 0.068243 |
21 | 511 | 0.040549 |
22 | 189 | 0.014998 |
23 | 548 | 0.043485 |
24 | 821 | 0.065148 |
25 | 118 | 0.009364 |
26 | 267 | 0.021187 |
27 | 673 | 0.053404 |
28 | 382 | 0.030313 |
29 | 131 | 0.010395 |
30 | 336 | 0.026662 |
31 | 578 | 0.045866 |
32 | 61 | 0.004841 |
33 | 146 | 0.011585 |
34 | 394 | 0.031265 |
35 | 200 | 0.015870 |
36 | 71 | 0.005634 |
37 | 163 | 0.012934 |
38 | 265 | 0.021028 |
39 | 30 | 0.002381 |
40 | 50 | 0.003968 |
41 | 146 | 0.011585 |
42 | 78 | 0.006189 |
43 | 25 | 0.001984 |
44 | 58 | 0.004602 |
45 | 85 | 0.006745 |
46 | 7 | 0.000555 |
47 | 16 | 0.001270 |
48 | 47 | 0.003730 |
49 | 35 | 0.002777 |
50 | 5 | 0.000397 |
51 | 15 | 0.001190 |
52 | 14 | 0.001111 |
53 | 1 | 0.000079 |
54 | 4 | 0.000317 |
55 | 6 | 0.000476 |
56 | 6 | 0.000476 |
57 | 2 | 0.000159 |
58 | 3 | 0.000238 |
59 | 5 | 0.000397 |
60 | 0 | 0.000000 |
61 | 0 | 0.000000 |
62 | 2 | 0.000159 |
Total | 12602 | 1.000000 |
Not that it is crucial, but the average score for a team stands at 21.60165.
Next, for each score combination x-y that has yet to occur, I computed its probability as 2 × prob(x) × prob(y). Why the factor of two? Because a score of x-y could happen in two distinct ways: for instance, Super Bowl 55 could result in Kansas City scoring x while Tampa Bay scores y, or vice versa with Kansas City at y and Tampa Bay at x. Ties aren't possible in a Super Bowl, so we don’t need to think about x-x scores. If we did, we wouldn’t multiply by two.
As an illustration, the score 11-15 has not yet been recorded. I calculated the probability for a score of 11 to be 0.002539 and for 15, it was 0.010157. Thus, the probability of the score being 11-15 becomes 2 × 0.002539 × 0.010157 = 0.0000515835.
By repeating this calculation for every score that hasn't been recorded, the cumulative probability amounts to 0.0179251. The fair odds for placing a bet on such a score would be +5479, translating to approximately 55 to 1. Therefore, betting at just 11 to 1 would seem to be quite advantageous! I wish I had the opportunity to take that bet.
I acknowledge that this assessment assigns a probability of zero to the chance of either team scoring a single point, an event that has never taken place but could theoretically occur. Yes, a one-point scoring play is a valid concept. one-point safety However, I believe the chances of either team achieving a score of one are exceedingly low.
In practical terms, the over/under line for Super Bowl 55 was set at 56.5. A game with such prolific scoring would likely heighten the likelihood of a Scorigami occurring. If I had to estimate, I'd say there's about a 2% chance, leading to fair odds of around 49 to 1.
This topic is currently being explored and debated in my forum at Wizard of Vegas .
What is the likelihood of rolling a total of 53 with 15 dice?
Using a spreadsheet can simplify finding answers like this. For instance, let's consider a similar question: what are the odds of rolling a total of 20 with eight dice?
In the '1 Die' column, there is clearly one way to roll each total from 1 to 6.
For any cell depicting two dice or more, move one cell to the left and then sum the six cells located above it. The reasoning behind this is straightforward. Apply this formula to the cell corresponding to eight dice and a total of 20.
The resulting cell yields a total of 36,688. Since there are 8^{6} = 262,144 potential combinations to roll eight six-sided dice, the probability of achieving a total score of 20 with eight dice is calculated as 36688 / 262,144 = 0.139954.6Following a similar approach, the odds of rolling a total of 53 using 20 dice comes out to be 0.059511.
As a pyrotechnician responsible for the evening fireworks at a theme park, you've received a new type of rocket from Europe, and you are testing it to synchronize with the musical score of your show.
Dice Totals
Total | 1 Die | 2 Dice | 3 Dice | 4 Dice | 5 Dice | 6 Dice | 7 Dice | 8 Dice |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
6 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
7 | 6 | 15 | 20 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 0 | |
8 | 5 | 21 | 35 | 35 | 21 | 7 | 1 | |
9 | 4 | 25 | 56 | 70 | 56 | 28 | 8 | |
10 | 3 | 27 | 80 | 126 | 126 | 84 | 36 | |
11 | 2 | 27 | 104 | 205 | 252 | 210 | 120 | |
12 | 1 | 25 | 125 | 305 | 456 | 462 | 330 | |
13 | 21 | 140 | 420 | 756 | 917 | 792 | ||
14 | 15 | 146 | 540 | 1161 | 1667 | 1708 | ||
15 | 10 | 140 | 651 | 1666 | 2807 | 3368 | ||
16 | 6 | 125 | 735 | 2247 | 4417 | 6147 | ||
17 | 3 | 104 | 780 | 2856 | 6538 | 10480 | ||
18 | 1 | 80 | 780 | 3431 | 9142 | 16808 | ||
19 | 56 | 735 | 3906 | 12117 | 25488 | |||
20 | 35 | 651 | 4221 | 15267 | 36688 |
This topic is currently being explored and debated in my forum at Wizard of Vegas .
The firework rocket is launched straight up with a constant acceleration of 4 m/s² until its chemical fuel runs out. After that, gravity takes over, slowing its ascent until it reaches a peak height of 138 meters, at which point it explodes.
Assuming no aerodynamic drag and considering gravitational acceleration at 9.8 m/s², how long does it take the rocket to reach its peak altitude?
I will represent acceleration as directed upwards. Thus, once the rocket's fuel is depleted, the acceleration is -9.8.
Let:
t = time since rocket fuel runs out.
r = time rocket fuel lasted.
Remember, the integral of acceleration gives us velocity, while the integral of velocity provides location. Let’s consider location relative to the ground.
Upon launching the rocket, we know its acceleration is 4.
Integrating this, the velocity of the rocket after r seconds can be expressed as 4r.
Integrating the velocity further, we determine the location of the rocket after r seconds to be 2r².
Next, let’s analyze what occurs once the rocket's fuel has burned out.2.
We know the gravitational acceleration at that time will be -9.8.
The velocity imparted by gravity at time t is -9.8t, but there is also the upward velocity from the rocket, which is 4r.
The rocket will reach its maximum height when the velocity v(t) = 0. Let's find that point.
Let v(t) = velocity at time t
v(t) = -9.8t + 4r
In essence, whatever duration the rocket fuel lasted, the rocket will continue ascending for 20/49 of that time.
v(t) = 0 = -9.8t + 4r
4r = 9.8t
t = 40/98 r = 20r/49.
We also understand that the distance covered upon reaching maximum altitude is 138 meters.
Let's integrate v(t) to derive the expression for the distance traveled, which we will refer to as d(t).
+ 4rt + c, where c represents the constant of integration.
d(t) = -4.9t2As shown earlier, the distance traveled would be 2r² at the time the fuel runs out, which must equal the constant of integration, yielding:
We already established that the maximum height of 138 meters was attained at t = 20r/49, so let's insert t=20r/49 into the equation to solve for r:2Consequently, the rocket fuel lasted a total of seven seconds.
d(t) = -4.9t2+ 4rt + 2r2
We've established that the rocket continues its ascent for 20/49 of this total duration, equating to 140/49, approximately 2.8571 seconds.
d((20r/49) = -4.9((20r/49)2+ 4r(20r/49) + 2r2= 138
r2*(-1960/2401 + 80/49 + 2) = 138
r2= 49
r = 7
Therefore, the time elapsed from launch to the peak velocity reached is 7 + 140/49 = 483/49, approximately 9.8571 seconds.
Strategies and insights grounded in mathematics for playing various casino games such as blackjack, craps, roulette, and many others.
Kindly check your inbox for an email and follow the link provided to finalize your registration.
This topic is currently being explored and debated in my forum at Wizard of Vegas .