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Ask The Wizard #281

When tossing a fair coin n times, what is the chance of observing at least one occurrence of t consecutive tails?

anonymous

The answer is 1-F(t)n+2/2n, where F(t)nThis refers to the n-th term found in a t-step variant of the Fibonacci sequence.

You might be curious about what exactly a Fibonacci sequence is. The initial number is always one. In a t-step sequence, every following number is derived from the sum of the preceding t numbers. For clarity, consider zeros preceding the first term.

Let’s examine a sequence with two steps. The first term is designated as 1. The second term results from adding the two prior terms. If we assume a zero before the one, the second term equals 0+1=1. The third term would then be 1+1=2, with the fourth being 1+2=3, and the fifth term calculated as 2+3=5.

The first twelve numbers from the two-step Fibonacci series are: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, and 144.

Let’s consider a specific example. What are the odds of flipping at least two tails in a row at least once over the course of ten flips?

Utilizing the two-step Fibonacci sequence is ideal since we are only looking for two tails. The 12th number in this sequence (which is two more than the total flips) equals 144. Hence, the solution is 1 minus F.(2)10+2/210= 1 - 144/210= 1 - 144/1024 = 85.94%.

What are the chances we would get five tails in succession during 20 coin flips?

The first 22 numbers in the five-step Fibonacci series include: 1, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 31, 61, 120, 236, 464, 912, 1793, 3525, 6930, 13624, 26784, 52656, 103519, 203513, 400096, and 786568.

The answer is thus 1 - F(5)20+2/220= 1 - 786,568/1,048,576 = 1 - 75.01% = 24.99%.

This topic is being discussed in my forum at Wizard of Vegas .

I wasn’t aware of this until I started receiving W2-G forms from casinos, but is there a way to receive payments without providing a Social Security number? I feel a bit uneasy about casinos having access to more personal information than necessary. After hitting a few royal flushes and hand pays, I’m uncomfortable with the casino keeping my identification and necessitating my social security number.

djatc

Initially, you will need to provide a form of photographic identification, otherwise, the casino will withhold your winnings until you do. If you show your identification but opt not to supply a valid Social Security number or tax ID, 25% to 30% of your winnings may be withheld depending on whether the jackpot amount is over or under $5,000 and your residency status, be it in the United States or in a country that has a tax treaty.

As of 2011, such countries included Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, China, Cyprus, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Moldova, Morocco, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Switzerland, Tajikistan, Thailand, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, Uzbekistan, and Venezuela.

I am trying to understand the precise rules here, but it’s proving to be quite challenging. Please refer to the IRS for accurate information. rules for issuing a W2G form for more information.

I want to express my gratitude to Marissa Chien, co-author of, and MathExtremist for their assistance regarding this inquiry. Tax Help for Gamblers Amir Lehavot, a player who made it to the final table of the 2013 World Series of Poker, is offering any winnings that exceed the base amount of $733,224 for ninth place for $29,248 per each 1% share. Do you think this is a reasonable offer?

This topic is being discussed in my forum at Wizard of Vegas .

According to CardPlayer.com The following table outlines the winnings for each possible outcome from the tournament.

anonymous

First, let's review the chip stacks.

2013 WSOP Final Table Chip Stacks

Player Chips
JC Tran 38,000,000
Amir Lehavot 29,700,000
Marc McLaughlin 26,525,000
Jay Farber 25,975,000
Ryan Riess 25,875,000
Sylvain Loosli 19,600,000
Michiel Brummelhuis 11,275,000
Mark Newhouse 7,350,000
David Benefield 6,375,000

If we assume all players have similar skills, we can gauge the probability of winning by looking at each player's share of the total chip stack. However, estimating this becomes increasingly complex with each place.

2013 WSOP Final Table Prize Money

Place Win
1st $8,359,531
2nd $5,173,170
3rd $3,727,023
4th $2,791,983
5th $2,106,526
$1,600,792
Ask The Wizard $1,225,224
$944,593
Ask The Wizard #281 $733,224

To help clarify the issue, I devised my Ask The Wizard #281 .

Once you've input all the relevant information, you’ll discover that Amir's expected winnings amount to $3,658,046. By subtracting the guaranteed minimum of $733,224 for ninth place, that leaves an expected non-guaranteed win of $2,924,822. Thus, each 1% share is valued at $29,248.22. This aligns well with the price mentioned in the article on cardplayer.com.

Lehavot ended up finishing third, securing $3,727,023 as his prize. If we deduct the guaranteed prize for ninth place ($733,224) and divide the remaining amount by 100, each 1% share would yield $29,938. The original investment for each share was $29,248, representing a profit of 2.36%.

This topic is being discussed in my forum at anonymous .

I believe I've developed a successful betting strategy, but I require more than the 3,000 baccarat shoes currently available on your baccarat page to validate it. Is it possible for you to provide additional resources?

The answer is 1-F

(t) n+2 It's wiser to test your system for free and discover its shortcomings rather than risking real money in a casino.

This topic is being discussed in my forum at /2 .

What is the value of the mathematical strategies on your site when every casino has hidden rooms with computers that manipulate the outcome of every single bet? Such systems can steer the roulette ball to land in areas where players are likely to lose the most. For card games, these machines control shuffling to provide unfavorable hands. Are you merely naive, or are you involved in some larger scheme?

n

All I can say is that the 'secret room' at the Venetian has cookies.

This topic is being discussed in my forum at , where F .