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Ask The Wizard #264

With the advent of server-based technology for slot machine management, has anyone kept a record of the optimal days and times for playing slots? Over the past year, I’ve informally observed that slots seem to offer better payouts during Friday and Saturday evenings, while they tend to perform poorly on Friday mornings and throughout Sunday and Monday. I understand that modern slot machines are now regulated through a central server, as opposed to being controlled by individual chips that slot technicians manually insert or replace. It strikes me that casinos may aim to attract players when they arrive in town and subsequently recoup their earnings on the quieter days of Sunday and Monday.

likeplayingcrapsandbj

To clarify for others, traditional slot machines usually operate with an internal component known as a chip that regulates how generously or conservatively the machine pays out. Most of the current slot machines still rely on this method of operation. Contrary to common beliefs, these machines do not adjust their payout percentages by paying out more when the return is low and less when it’s high. Instead, they make subtle adjustments either in the reel configurations of video slots or in the virtual weights of mechanical slots. It's generally up to a casino manager to decide which chip a machine uses, though some regulations may delegate this choice to state authorities. A prevalent misconception is that the slot manager can easily adjust the payout of any machine from their office. In reality, a technician would need to open the machine and manually replace the EPROM chips to make changes.EPROM However, with the emergence of 'server-based slots,' this misconception could potentially turn into reality. These modern machines can be controlled remotely, allowing slot managers to adjust theoretical payouts, pay tables for video poker, and the game itself, all from their office. In Nevada, there are measures in place to prevent any misuse of this capability. According to the Gaming Control Board's regulations: 'The traditional gaming device or client station must remain idle with no errors or tilts, and no play or credits for a minimum of 4 minutes. Following this period, the device must be disabled, and a message must be displayed on-screen to inform players that game settings have been altered.' — Technical Standards for Gaming Devices and Online Slot Systems 1.140.

This means that a slot manager cannot simply tighten the payouts on the game you are using just because they dislike your choice of hat. Nonetheless, theoretically, they could alter the payouts on every machine that isn’t currently being played. Addressing your main question, would a manager adjust the payouts frequently throughout the day or week? In discussions on my forum, I suggested that this would not be a wise business decision, but many commenters disagreed. To bolster my argument, I consulted Nick Dillon, Executive Vice President/Assistant General Manager at Barona Casino in San Diego County. Here's what he replied.

'The concern regarding server-based gaming (SBG) is that manufacturers and casinos primarily view it as a means of reducing costs (like minimizing slot technician labor needed for game adjustments). At Barona, we only want to implement it if it provides genuine benefits to our players. We currently have about 80 machines on the floor that have been in testing for some time. We're not at a stage yet where we can confidently assert there are real advantages for players. Although we've experimented with various aspects of these machines, we've never adjusted the hold based on the time of day or week. However, we have explored other strategies, like adjusting the minimum denomination based on the day of the week (e.g., using a penny denomination during the week and switching to a nickel on weekends). This idea parallels table games where minimum bets rise during busy times to enhance revenue. Yet, our tests showed this strategy didn't hold, likely because, while table games have limited capacity and often reach full occupancy, slots do not, and a 'penny' player could just as easily wager higher amounts.

We observed dissatisfaction from patrons who were accustomed to their favorite games and denominations, now suddenly altered. We also experimented with changing the default denomination from penny to nickel, which is what appears on the screen when the game is idle. Many players, unaware of the multi-denomination feature, mostly play the default. Again, this didn’t significantly impact revenue. Nick Dillon We firmly believe, as demonstrated through our Loose Troop and Manufacturers Best programs, along with our favorable blackjack rules and the loosest video poker, that players deserve the best odds possible. We aim to maximize playtime for the dollar without fooling around with hold percentages for brief periods. Strip properties might see it differently due to their limited timeframes to accumulate winnings.

We are optimistic that we can influence manufacturers to enhance server-based gaming for the benefit of players. Ideally, a player could insert their card and have their favorite games and denominations readily available at any device they use. This has great potential to improve player experience, which would, in turn, benefit our casino and the industry as a whole. If cost savings come as a bonus, that's great, but that shouldn’t be the primary focus.' -- Nick Dillon.", 'In summary, I believe it’s generally safe to play server-based slots. If that’s not convincing enough, just watch the video poker pay tables. If you don’t see fluctuations daily, it’s likely that the slot returns are stable as well.

This topic sparked a lively debate on the forum of my related site.

Have you heard about the Australian cricket player who miscalled a coin toss for 35 consecutive games before finally getting it right on the 36th attempt? What are the odds of such a thing happening?

I wasn’t aware of that until you brought it up. You’re referring to the incredible story of a young cricket player from the Magpies who indeed got the toss wrong 35 times straight. The likelihood of making 35 or more incorrect calls is (1/2) raised to the 35th power = 1 in 34,359,738,368. To give you perspective, the chance of winning the lottery is 1 in 195,249,054, making it 176 times more likely than failing 35 consecutive coin flips.

Is there a simplified method to determine the probability of achieving a total of t with d six-sided dice? Wizard of Vegas .

Here’s a useful tip from Robert Goodhand of Somerset, UK. Start by placing a row of six ones, flanked by five zeros on each side, like this:

Mick from Wollongong, Australia

This setup represents the combinations for rolling a number from 1 to 6 with a single die. It might seem straightforward, but stay with me. For two dice, you would add a new row below it, and for each cell in that new row, sum the value of the cell directly above and the five cells to the left. If you want to continue, you can add five more zeros to the right. This will depict the combinations for totals from 2 to 12. Kristy Perrin For three dice, just replicate the previous steps. This will represent the combinations from 3 to 18.35To calculate the probability for any specific total, divide the number of combinations that yield that total by the total number of possible combinations. In the case of three dice, the grand total is 216, found by computing 6 raised to the power of 3. For instance, if you’re looking at the probability of rolling a total of 13 with three dice, it would be 21 out of 216, yielding a probability of approximately 9.72%. Powerball Thus, for d dice, you should work your way through the calculations from 1 to d-1 dice. This can easily be done using a spreadsheet program.

What strategy do you recommend for playing Monopoly?

Anon E. Mouse

Let me share my basic strategy for Monopoly:

One-Die Probabilities

Dice Total 1 2 3 4 5 6
One Die 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

Purchase all properties available. Experienced players might contemplate exceptions if a property doesn’t help them complete a set, impede an opponent, and provides minimal value for future trades. In cash-strapped scenarios, you might also want to skip utilities.

Two Dice Probabilities

Dice Total 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
One Die 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Two Dice 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0

Engage in trading actively. This is where your skills will shine. Aim to acquire the best sets possible. Generally, I rank the properties like this: Orange, Yellow, Light Blue, Dark Blue, Light Purple, Red, Green, Dark Purple. However, this may change based on the game's situation. In low-cash games, prioritize the less expensive sets such as the light blues; in richer games, go for more lucrative opportunities like the yellows or dark blues.

Three Dice ProbabilitiesExpand

Dice Total 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
One Die 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Two Dice 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Three Dice 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 6 10 15 21 25 27 27 25 21 15 10 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0

Once you achieve a set, whether through natural acquisition or trade, develop it quickly. Aim to reach three houses on each property at the earliest opportunity, as the returns on additional houses diminish after three. Consider mortgaging most of your other properties to pool your cash for these developments. Having unused funds is like a soldier in combat failing to use their ammunition effectively.3Dismiss all arbitrary house rules. This is especially true for the infamous money pot on Free Parking (a rule I strongly dislike!). If you possess greater skills than your opponents, you’ll want to reduce the unpredictability inherent in the game.

Explore mathematically sound strategies and insights for a range of casino games, including blackjack, craps, roulette, and many others.

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  • Ever since slot machines transitioned to server-based operations, has anyone recorded the optimal times to play? Over the past year, I've observed that payouts seem to be higher on Friday and Saturday nights, while Friday mornings and most of Sunday/Monday feel unprofitable. I understand that the control of slot machines has shifted to a central server rather than relying on individual chips that were swapped manually by technicians. I can't shake the feeling that casinos aim to attract players during peak visitation times and recoup their earnings on the quieter days of Sunday and Monday.
  • To clarify for new readers, traditional slot machines generally operate using an internal component called a chip which defines the machine's payout tendencies. Many modern slots continue utilizing this method. Contrary to common belief, these machines do not adjust their payout rates by paying out more when returns are low or vice versa. Instead, the adjustments come from minor modifications in video slot reel configurations and the virtual weights in stepper slots. Ultimately, it is often the casino manager who decides which chip to install, although in some areas, state regulations determine this choice. A prevalent misconception is that slot managers can simply adjust payouts from their offices, but in actuality, a technician must physically access the machine to alter the EPROM chips.
Is there a simplified method to determine the probability of achieving a total of t with d six-sided dice? Wizard of Vegas .