Ask The Wizard #235

I'm receiving an increasing number of inquiries about this topic. Sadly, the sheer volume of potential combinations in this game is astronomically high. A brute-force computational method might take centuries to yield results. Nevertheless, an experienced programmer might discover some efficient methods. Weighing all factors, I don’t consider this project a prudent investment of my time, though I might have a different perspective if I lived in Russia or the Baltics.

To clarify for others, Royal Poker closely resembles Caribbean Stud Poker, but with several additional features. My understanding is that players can exercise any or all of these features, provided they don’t use options 2 and 3 simultaneously.

1. If a player manages to create two winning hands that both outperform the dealer, and neither hand entirely encompasses the other, they are entitled to payouts for both hands. I'm unclear whether both the ante and raise bets receive payouts separately. For instance, if a player holds six cards and forms both a straight and a flush, they should earn payouts for each qualifying hand.
2. A player has the option to exchange between one to five of their cards at the cost of the ante.
3. For an ante fee, players may opt to acquire a sixth card.
4. Prior to the dealer revealing their four hidden cards, a player can opt for 'insurance.' If the dealer does not qualify, this insurance bet pays out at even money.
5. A player can compel the dealer to replace their highest card with the next card from the deck by placing an ante wager.
6. There is a side bet called the 'AA Bonus,' which pays out at 7 to 1 if a player's initial five cards include a pair of aces or better.

In my opinion, taking the AA Bonus side bet and opting for insurance is inadvisable, as they offer little value. The house edge for the AA Bonus is set at 12.99%. As for the insurance bet, its house edge varies between 8.57% to 33.57%, depending on the dealer’s visible card.

From my insights on Oasis Poker, the option to switch cards significantly reduces the house edge from 5.22% down to 1.04%. I believe that the regulations regarding double payouts, retaining the sixth card instead of swapping it, and forcing the dealer to change a card could create a player advantage if the right strategy is applied. Apologies for being vague, but this is what I can provide at the moment.

P.S. I've heard that some casinos implement a rule where if a player wins, their ante only earns them a push. This can substantially favor the casino, potentially nullifying any advantage players may have.

To simplify, let's disregard the diminishing value of each ticket as you buy more, considering you are essentially competing against your own entries. With that in mind, the odds of losing all five tickets is (12/13), which equals 67.02%. Thus, your chances of winning at least one prize stand at 32.98%. Before any purchase, there are a total of 91,429 tickets in the draw. After accounting for the 40 big prizes, the remaining 91,389 are lower-tier prizes. Therefore, the odds of not winning any major prizes with five tickets is (91,389/91,429), resulting in 99.78%. As a result, your probability of winning at least one major prize is just 0.22%, which translates to about 1 in 458.⁵You propose that as we continue playing, the likelihood of loss approaches the negative expected value known as the house edge. Does that mean if we played rationally, we would gamble our entire bankroll on a single bet to avoid this cumulative loss trend? This is an insight presented by Bluejay.⁵Bluejay states, \"If you understand that your chances of losing increase with time played, then it logically follows that shorter playtime improves your winning chances. Therefore, the optimal approach is to make a single play. Thus, placing all your money on one even-money wager may statistically offer you the best outcome.\"

In a recent interview, Ty Lawson, the starting point guard at UNC, mentioned, \"The only time I ended up losing was in Reno; that was when every member of the team lost. In all my other gambling experiences, I won at least $500.\"

If we set the house edge aside (which is relatively low in craps when played correctly), the likelihood of winning $500, versus losing $1,000, stands at 2/3. The chance of experiencing 4 winning sessions out of 5 would be calculated as 5 times (2/3),

Please check your inbox for an email we sent, and follow the link to complete your registration process.⁴×(1/3) = 32.9%.