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Ask The Wizard #228
What are your thoughts about the 5-Count strategy used in craps?
To enlighten others, the 5-Count method promotes a cautious approach to craps, as mentioned in the book Golden Touch Dice Control Revolution by Frank Scoblete and Dominator. This strategy allows you to avoid betting on certain rolls, thereby minimizing potential losses associated with random shooters while still enjoying full comp values for your time at the table.
The 5-Count strategy starts once a new shooter rolls a point number. After counting five rolls, if the shooter proves consistent, you initiate your bets. However, if the fifth roll doesn’t establish a point, that count becomes void.
According to the book, your betting frequency drops to 43%, a figure I can endorse. It’s common for players to refrain from betting or to make minimal bets when assessing new shooters. As a shooter starts establishing points, confidence builds among other players, who then start placing their bets. This strategy feels instinctive. Casinos also consider your average bet without penalizing you for the times you don’t wager, except when high-stakes bets are made.
Alternatively, you might delay until the shooter hits a point, which results in a betting frequency of only 40.6%, lower than the 5-Count's 43.5%.
What is the correct strategy for Acey Deucey At a casual home poker game, our rule is that if the third card matches either of the first two, the bet is considered a push.
In your approach, where a match with the third card results in a push, your odds improve significantly when there's a six-rank gap between the initial two cards. In my prior experience in Orange County, a match with the third card actually led to a double loss. Under those conditions, the odds balanced out with an eight-card spread. If a third card match incurs a 1x loss, it requires a seven-card spread for the odds to work in your favor.
Statistically speaking, how many traditional bingo cards would you need to have in play to guarantee a coverall within 40 numbers?
As bingo cards are printed randomly, purchasing a large quantity could lead to duplicates, meaning there’s no guaranteed win scenario. The probability of any individual card winning stands at 0.00000000243814, or approximately 1 in 410,148,569. If you're aiming for a winning probability of p, with n representing the number of cards bought and c as the success rate per card, we can derive the equation for n:
P = 1-(1-c)n
1-p = (1-c)n
ln(1-p) = n×ln(1-c)
n=ln(1-p)/ln(1-c)
For instance, to secure a 90% winning probability, you'd need to purchase ln(1-.9)/ln(1-0.00000000243814) cards, which works out to 944,401,974.
In the game Super Pan 9, utilizing eight decks, is an 8 to 1 payout for a tie beneficial for players? Based on my rough calculations, this gives players around a 2.5% edge.
My Super Pan 9 The probability for a tie stands at 11.3314%. Therefore, with an 8 to 1 payout for ties, the expected return becomes 9×0.113314 − 1 = 0.019826. Even though a 1.98% player advantage is lower than your estimation, it's still an appealing bet. Where can I enjoy this kind of game?
I engage in card counting (14 count). My preference is to play solo at the third base position and steer clear of poor players. Continuous shuffle machines make it exceedingly difficult to play and maintain the count. Is there a recent listing of Las Vegas casinos using these devices?
I completely understand your desire to avoid playing with others. Not only can they slow down the game, but smoky environments can pose health risks as well. Still, their competence isn't necessarily a concern. Almost every casino in Vegas mixes continuous shufflers, automatic shufflers, and traditional hand-shuffled games. For blackjack rules, including details about the type of shuffle and penetration, the best source remains the Current Blackjack News , which requires a paid subscription.
I frequent a casino that permits unlimited re-splitting of cards in a six-deck blackjack game, except for aces that can’t be re-split. While I assume this offers an advantage, I'm curious about the extent and if there are specific thresholds at which further splitting should be avoided. I haven't found much information on this rule.
Unless you're employing card counting techniques, you should continue re-splitting as often as allowed, up to the maximum of 24 hands in a six-deck game. The difference in value between unlimited re-splitting and a limit of three times is negligible. This is influenced by whether double after split is allowed, but either way, the benefit remains below 0.01%.
Picture a craps player who takes full odds, like 10x, on his pass line and come bets, effectively lowering the house edge to 0.18%. He consciously avoids placing other bets that might favor the house more. This player is remarkably astute in almost every regard, yet he's set on losing money. By managing his bankroll with the determination to walk away as a 'loser,' he hopes to look back years later and claim, 'I wagered $1 million at the craps table and only handed back $50,000 to the casino; thanks to my 'skill,' I managed to leave only 5% behind.' Is he living in a dream world? Is he bound to surrender roughly 0.18% or $1800 despite his losing strategies?
Absolutely! I've repeatedly emphasized that betting systems can neither overcome the house edge nor make any significant impact on it. This remains true even when trying to lose intentionally. Put simply, even with his focused intention to lose, he's still likely to yield only 0.18% in the long run, based on your assumptions. In the short term, he might achieve this goal, but not over 'years.' Some may suggest that to deliberately lose, the player should follow an anti-Martingale approach, which involves increasing bets until a loss occurs. However, a challenge with this method is that a winning player will often hit the table maximum quite quickly, which tends to be fairly low in craps. This effectively illustrates the futility of betting systems.