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Ask The Wizard #222

At the Victor Chandler casino, there's a game named 'Challenge Poker,' which resembles MultiStrike video poker, with two differences:

  1. No \"Free Ride\" cards.
  2. Each level has its own unique version of the base game, with all levels offering returns greater than 100%.

What is the return of this game?

Jim from Las Vegas

Let's kick things off with the Joker Poker game at level 4 where I've pre-calculated the winnings by a factor of 8, reflecting the 8x multiplier applicable at this level. In the lower right cell, you can see a return of 8.36 times the wager for each level, indicating that reaching level 4 will reward you with 8.36 times your bet at that level.

Challenge Poker — Level 4 — Joker Poker

Hand Pays Probability Return
Royal Flush 8000 0.000025 0.197991
Five of a Kind 1600 0.000093 0.148568
Wild Royal Flush 800 0.000102 0.081502
Straight Flush 400 0.000577 0.230739
Four of a Kind 160 0.008444 1.35102
Full House 64 0.015457 0.989258
Flush 48 0.02008 0.963829
Straight 24 0.015964 0.383133
Three of a Kind 16 0.131052 2.096835
Two Pair 8 0.109069 0.872555
Kings or Better 8 0.130636 1.045088
Nothing 0 0.568501 0
Total 1.000000 8.360518

The next table is for the Deuces Wild Moving to the game at level 3, the current winnings have been adjusted with a multiplier of 4, representative of the 4x multiplier for this level. The 'future levels' column indicates the benefit of progressing to level 4, while the 'total value' encompasses both current and future values. The return featured in the lower right cell shows 8.00 times your bet for each level, meaning if you reach level 3, the total game value (across levels 3 and 4) is 8 times your initial wager.

Challenge Poker — Level 3 — Deuces Wild

Hand This Level Future Levels Total Value Probability Return
Royal Flush 3200 8.36 3208.36 0.000021 0.067611
Four Deuces 800 8.36 808.36 0.000202 0.163510
Wild Royal Flush 120 8.36 128.36 0.001715 0.220129
Five of a Kind 80 8.36 88.36 0.003272 0.289111
Straight Flush 36 8.36 44.36 0.003919 0.173848
Four of a Kind 20 8.36 28.36 0.065321 1.852541
Full House 12 8.36 20.36 0.021301 0.433703
Flush 12 8.36 20.36 0.018085 0.368214
Straight 8 8.36 16.36 0.052079 0.852039
Three of a Kind 4 8.36 12.36 0.289967 3.584144
Nothing 0 0 0 0.544118 0
Total 1.000000 8.004849

The next table is for the All American Now considering the game at level 2, the winnings in the column marked 'this level' have been doubled using the 2x multiplier from level 2. The 'future levels' column estimates the benefits of moving on to level 3, while the 'total value' combines both existing and future potential. The bottom right cell displays a return of 5.63 times the wager per level, implying that if you can attain level 2, you will gain a total value of 5.63 times your stake across levels 2 to 4.

Challenge Poker — Level 2 — All American

Hand This Level Future Levels Total Value Probability Return
Royal Flush 3200 8 1608 0.000022 0.035905
Straight Flush 800 8 408 0.00009 0.036568
Four of a Kind 160 8 88 0.002179 0.191762
Full House 32 8 24 0.010881 0.261198
Flush 32 8 24 0.010721 0.257352
Straight 32 8 24 0.012169 0.292120
Three of a Kind 12 8 14 0.067664 0.947625
Two Pair 4 8 10 0.12104 1.210985
Jacks or Better 4 8 10 0.239323 2.394392
Nothing 0 0 0 0.535911 0
Total 1.000000 5.627908

The final table is for the Jacks or Better In the game of level 1, the 'future levels' column illustrates the potential value of progressing to level 2. The 'total win' reflects the total value you could accumulate, both now and in the future. The return noted in the lower right cell shows a multiplier of 3.60 times the wager for each level.

Challenge Poker — Level 1 — Jacks or Better

Hand This Level Future Levels Total Value Probability Return
Royal Flush 3200 5.63 805.63 0.000024 0.019684
Straight Flush 300 5.63 80.63 0.000073 0.005905
Four of a Kind 100 5.63 30.63 0.002207 0.067595
Full House 36 5.63 14.63 0.011014 0.161111
Flush 24 5.63 11.63 0.009205 0.107034
Straight 16 5.63 9.63 0.007246 0.069763
Three of a Kind 12 5.63 8.63 0.069254 0.597516
Two Pair 8 5.63 7.63 0.123961 0.945566
Jacks or Better 4 5.63 6.63 0.245815 1.629242
Nothing 0 0 0 0.531200 0
Total 1.000000 3.603417

This game, assuming optimal play, stands to yield a return of 3.603417 units. However, the requirement to bet 4 coins to participate results in a return of 90.1%.

This circumstance has been on my mind for years. Back in 1999, for my 21st birthday, my father took me to Vegas. We found ourselves at a blackjack table together—my bets approximating $25, while his were around $40. The dealer initially counted 20 but mistakenly thought she lost. Consequently, she rewarded us as winners. Approximately 15 minutes later, three casino staff approached us, explained the blunder, and demanded we return the 'winnings' or vacate the premises. We opted to leave and continued to enjoy our gambling evening elsewhere. Is this approach typical, or is it more of an isolated incident?

Mike from Buffalo Grove, IL

In my view, the two fundamental principles of gambling should be the prohibition of cheating and the respect for bets made. There shouldn’t be any time limits or justifications; an individual should honor their gambling commitments. You didn't specify how many points you achieved. Ideally, you should return the winnings solely if you had a 20, or refund both the winnings and your original wager if you had less. If they were unpleasant in their request, I wouldn't hold it against you for exiting the casino, but I still would have settled my debt. I've been asked similar questions before, suggesting this may be the norm.

I'm aware of the guideline against making side bets, yet I recently discovered a blackjack side wager that pays 11 to 1 if the player's first two cards form a pair. Is it feasible to exploit a counting system to gain an edge with this bet?

Brian from Las Vegas

It sounds like you are talking about Lucky Pairs This side bet rewards players whose initial two cards make a pair, with many baccarat tables also providing this option. As explained on my baccarat section, the house edge sits at 10.36%, assuming eight decks are in play. In both games, to have any advantage, you'd essentially have to eliminate an entire rank of cards. To achieve this, meticulous tracking with 13 distinct counts would be necessary. While this could be manageable in baccarat since players can take notes, extensive analysis indicates that such profitable situations are too rare to justify the effort.

Hi, Wizard. I saw your queries related to Texas Hold ’Em, and I was intrigued to see your calculations indicating a 59.85% chance of an ace or king appearing on the board when holding pocket Queens. How did you derive that number?

Jacob from Atwater, CA

There are combin When calculating this, I started with (50,5) to get 2,118,760 combinations for five cards chosen from the remaining 50 cards in the deck. Out of those, 42 cards rank from 2 to Q. Therefore, the number of combinations for 5 cards from this selection is combin(42,5)=850,668. Consequently, the probability of not drawing a king or ace is calculated as 850,668/2,118,760, translating to 40.15%. Therefore, the probability of drawing at least one ace or king is found by calculating 1-40.15%, which equals 59.85%.

Alternatively, one can compute it as 1 minus the probability that the first card in the flop isn't an ace or king, multiplied by that of the second card not being an ace or king, and so on until the fifth card: 1 - (42/50) × (41/49) × (40/48) × (39/47) × (38/46) results in the same figure of 59.85%.