Ask The Wizard #205
I often visit the Mohegan Sun casino, where there's a unique side bet available on several blackjack tables. When employing a high/low card counting strategy, do the chances of winning that side bet improve or decline as the count fluctuates? I really appreciate your insights. Match the Dealer For those reading this, the Match the Dealer side bet rewards players when either of their first two cards matches the dealer's visible card. A standard counting method won't be effective for this side bet. Instead, having an unusually skewed distribution of card ranks could tilt the odds in favor of the player, although tracking 13 different ranks isn't feasible.
Arnold Snyder's book, which I highly recommend, contains a brief section on defeating a similar type of side bet. In this context, with only four suits to track, the side bet becomes susceptible to the strategies outlined in that book when played in a single-deck scenario. Big Book of Blackjack You’re participating in a game involving three players: (a) you, (b) your competitor, and (c) an impartial judge. Each participant secretly selects a real number between 0 and 1. Once all selections are made, the numbers are disclosed. The player whose number is nearest to the judge's chosen number, without exceeding it, is declared the winner. If you're closer, you earn $1; if your rival is closer, you lose $1. If both exceed the judge's number or if there’s a tie, the game results in a stalemate. Royal Match Is there an optimal number you could choose to achieve the highest potential gain, assuming your opponent chooses randomly? Additionally, how would the game change if your opponent had their own strategy?
What is the standard deviation for pai gow tiles ?
0.75.
I genuinely hope you’re doing better, as I devoted an entire day to the second part of the problem, but my conclusion was still incorrect. To spare my readers from the same frustration, I won’t just lay out the answers without context. I divided this into two separate issues and shared my findings and explanations at:
What impact does skipping the burning of a card have on a single-deck blackjack game, if any?
If you aren't employing a card counting method, then it won’t make a difference. However, if you are counting cards, any burned cards should be accounted for in the total deck or shoe remaining when you convert to the true count. mathproblems.info , problems 196 and 197.
I feel there was some unfairness in a poker game I played. Statistically, facing AA against KK should happen approximately once every 45,000 hands in a heads-up scenario, yet I encountered it three times in merely 400 hands. Does this seem unlikely enough to raise suspicions?
The odds of being on the losing side of KK against AA can be calculated as (4,2)/combin(52,2) × (combin(4,2)/combin(50,2)) = 0.000022162 for each rival at the table. This translates to a frequency of once every 45,121 hands, so your calculations are indeed accurate. For the 400 hands you played, the expected occurrence would be 400 × 0.000022162 = 0.008865084 per opponent. The following table illustrates the probability of seeing KK against AA three or more times over the course of 400 hands, depending on the number of opponents.
Considering the above, I would say that your experience does seem suspicious. The fewer players there are, the more questionable it appears. I’d be curious about the location of this game.
Oh my goodness! This is an extraordinary website, and it’s hard to believe I’ve only just discovered it. I've spent several days diving into your data, analyses, and commentary. Your insights are so convincing that I can't find any grounds to challenge them. combin Since I can't manipulate the statistics, my inquiry revolves around something I can control, which is the duration of my playing sessions and my bankroll. Given that a million or a billion hands is made up of numerous 'sessions'—let’s say between 300 to 1,000 hands—doesn’t it make logical sense to either a) play until you hit a predetermined winning target, or b) continue playing until you bounce back from a losing streak and end that session at a break-even point?
3+ KK vs AA probability in 400 hands
Opponents | Probability | Inverse |
---|---|---|
1 | 0.0000001145 | 1 in 8,734,376 |
2 | 0.0000009133 | 1 in 1,094,949 |
3 | 0.0000030658 | 1 in 326,182 |
4 | 0.0000072234 | 1 in 138,438 |
5 | 0.0000140202 | 1 in 71,325 |
6 | 0.0000240728 | 1 in 41,541 |
7 | 0.000037981 | 1 in 26,329 |
8 | 0.0000563277 | 1 in 17,753 |
9 | 0.0000796798 | 1 in 12,550 |
I have one more question: could you suggest a software simulation system that accommodates all variations of rules, implements stop/loss measures, allows for different lengths of 'sessions', and adjusts hit/stand strategies based on bet sizes? I would really like to put my approach through its paces on the computer.
Thank you. I receive inquiries like this fairly often. Usually, I ignore them, but since you were so polite, I’ll provide an answer this time. As I've mentioned repeatedly throughout the site, every betting system is essentially useless. There isn’t any magical point at which you should quit. While I don’t oppose having markers for winning or losing to determine quitting times, the expected values are just as effective or ineffective as going with your instincts. I've heard that
is capable of simulating the scenarios you’re asking about. Lastly, in a game of blackjack, the decision to hit or stand should not be influenced by the size of the bet. The optimal choice for a $1 bet remains the same as for a million-dollar bet.
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