Ask The Wizard #152

While watching 'Deal or No Deal', I recognize that the 'offer' presented by the banker is generally the average value of the remaining cases divided by their quantity, with a slight variation due to rounding. Is there any actual strategy to this game, or is accepting 'the deal' simply a reasonable option? Does the player's approach change based on the number of cases they have left to open?

I appreciate your website! It's fantastic! According to your Blackjack House Edge Calculator that factors in a six-deck game where the dealer stands on a soft 17, doubles on the first two cards, allows late surrender, and permits resplits up to four hands, the calculated house edge stands at 0.334%. Could you explain why another reliable source reports a slightly lower house edge of 0.325%, which is 0.009% less? QFit I appreciate your kind words. The slight discrepancy may arise from various assumptions made during the calculations. For instance, are cards shuffled after each round, or is a cut card used? Does the player utilize a total-dependent basic strategy or a composition-dependent strategy? Have interactions of rules been considered, or is the calculator merely summing up the individual effects? My calculations are based on random simulations using a total-dependent basic strategy, both of which might slightly disadvantage the player, potentially explaining the higher house edge. Additionally, this incongruence might stem from the random simulation's sample size being too small. Regardless of these factors, I believe the difference is minimal—just one wager for every 11,000 hands played.

I respectfully disagree. I can't recall a single major casino on the Strip that lacks a Keno lounge. The only establishments without Keno are typically the smaller local casinos in the outskirts of Las Vegas, as most locals understand that Keno is not a favorable game.

Occasionally, the Las Vegas Review Journal will announce in their classifieds that a particular casino is ceasing to accept a certain chip style, along with a deadline for redeeming them. After this date, the casino isn’t required to honor the chip. Nevertheless, there is a thriving market for casino chips, particularly for expired ones. I don't have extensive knowledge of it, but I do know that there are collector shows in Vegas, and the museum at the Tropicana has a variety of old chips available for purchase.

Thanks for your kind feedback. To clarify, let’s use an example with six decks (the dealer’s soft 17 rule doesn’t affect the outcome). My analysis indicates that the expected value of a total of 6+4 against an ace is +0.081336, while against a ten, it’s +0.026796. These positive expected values stem from the assumption that the dealer has already checked for blackjack and confirmed they do not have one. Meanwhile, the player still has the opportunity to draw an ace for a total of 21. Essentially, the player can achieve a 21 with the next card while the dealer cannot, given the rules. If I were to compile a table according to the European no-peek rule, the expected values would actually be negative.

First off, thank you for providing such an informative website. I have a quick question regarding the fortune bonus bet: While I realize this bet has poor odds (paying out less than 20% of the time), I still enjoy playing it on the off chance that I might hit a significant hand. At the Trump Casino in Gary, Indiana (near Chicago), the fortune bonus bet awards regular bonuses for three of a kind or better, but also includes a 1-to-1 payout for 3-pair. Statistically, how would this alteration affect my chances of winning on the bonus? What frequency can I expect to achieve 3-pair in my hand? Thank you once again.

The overall number of combinations is combin(53,7) = 154,143,080. Hence, the likelihood of forming three pairs is calculated as (2,471,040 + 380,160 + 61,776) / 154,143,080 = 0.0189. Thus, modifying a three-pair hand from a loss to a 1-to-1 push would lower the house edge by 1.89%. Fortune Bonus Pai Gow My boyfriend and I have been together for three years. After starting our relationship on Halloween, he imposed a rule stating that I could have no friends, claiming he was all I needed in the world. This rule has only tightened over time, and now I'm not even allowed to say hello to our roommate, acknowledge his friends at work, or answer his phone calls. Ever since our last anniversary, we’ve just been arguing, and it feels like our relationship is deteriorating. He has mentioned the possibility of inviting other people into the relationship, and his ex-girlfriend has been contacting him 'just to see how he’s doing'—which is quite odd since they hadn’t spoken in years, yet now she calls three times a week and chats for hours. I’m concerned about whether they might be rekindling something or if it’s merely friendship. This situation strikes me as a double standard. Regardless, I sense our relationship is near its end. Should I try to understand what’s happening with him and how to manage it, end things now, or should I wait for him to bring it up?

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