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Ask The Wizard #132

Do you have any tips for selecting the last digit in Super Bowl betting pools?

anonymous

In the office betting pools I've observed, they randomized the layout by assigning random digits to each row and column. However, if you have the option to choose specific terminal digits, the accompanying table illustrates the occurrence of each terminal digit for the final scores of both teams, based on all NFL games played from 1983 to 2003.

NFL Terminal Digits per Side

Digit

Frequency

Probability

0

1887

17.75%

1

1097

10.32%

2

348

3.27%

3

1382

13.00%

4

1608

15.13%

5

396

3.73%

6

848

7.98%

7

1945

18.30%

8

631

5.94%

9

488

4.59%

Total

10630

100%

According to this table, the number 7 appears to be the most favorable option, followed by 0, 4, and 3.

As I'm just starting to understand the game of Baccarat, and given that each player can place bets on either the player or the banker without directly opposing each other, I was curious about the game featured in the James Bond films. For instance, in 'Dr. No', it seems that Bond is competing against a woman and winning her money. Am I misunderstanding something, or is it a different game altogether? Thank you for your attention.

anonymous

Luckily, I'm a huge fan of James Bond and possess all the films on DVD. I took some time to investigate. Dr. No It turns out that he’s playing Chemin De Fer. The dialogue was in French, which complicates things for me. There’s a similar scene in another film where Bond seems to be playing baccarat, taking on the role of the banker. However, after the player takes action, he hesitates, and another character informs Bond that 'The odds favor standing pat.' This suggests that Bond had the freedom to choose whether to draw a third card, which is not an option in traditional baccarat. From what I know about gambling history, the American version of baccarat is a simplified form of Chemin De Fer, with set rules for drawing cards. Additionally, it is noted that American baccarat originated at the Capri Casino in Havana, Cuba. For Your Eyes Only If we have a 10-player Texas Hold 'em game with a flop showing three cards of different ranks, what is the likelihood that three players have a set? www.casino-info.com To clarify the terms, each player receives two personal cards while the three flop cards are communal among all participants. This essentially boils down to asking if you dealt three different community cards in a game where ten players each hold two cards—what's the chance that three of those two-card hands correspond to pairs matching one of the community cards?

The probability is calculated as (3,2)/combin(49,2). The chances that the second player has a set would be 2*combin(3,2)/combin(47,2) and for the third player, it would be combin(3,2)/combin(45,2). However, any of the three participating players can have those sets, not strictly the first three. Thus, the final calculation should consider combin(10,3) to select the 3 players from the 10 who have sets. The result is combin(10,3)*(3*combin(3,2)/combin(49,2))*(2*combin(3,2)/combin(47,2))*(combin(3,2)/combin(45,2)) = 0.00000154464, which simplifies to about 1 in 64,740.

anonymous

What is the 'statistical' dollar value associated with a phantom bonus? If I put in $100 and receive an additional $100 in phantom bonus, aiming to win $100 (resulting in a total balance of $300), what would the approximate value of that phantom bonus be for me?

The probability player 1 has a set is 3* combin Disregarding the house advantage, the likelihood of achieving your goal stands at 2/3, leading to an expected value of the phantom bonus being $33.33. With b being the phantom bonus, c cashable chips, and g the winning goal, the probability of attaining your goal can be expressed as (c+b)/g, while the expected value can be calculated as ((c+b)/g)*(g-b)-c. As a rule of thumb, the higher the sought-after winning goal, the greater the expected value of the phantom bonus becomes.

A Texas Hold 'em tournament kicks off with a high-card draw to determine the button. The player with the highest card wins, with spades beating hearts, which in turn beat diamonds and clubs. What would be the typical winning card in a table of ten players? I’ve attempted to simulate it by assigning numerical values to each card but haven't had much success! Thanks for your assistance and encouragement!

anonymous

For simplification, let's label the cards with numbers from 1 to 52. The table below illustrates the probability that the highest card among 10 cards will be from the 10th to the 52nd position. There are (x-1,9) methods to select 9 numbers below x, and comb(52,10) methods to choose any 10 numbers from the total of 52. Consequently, the probability that a given card x is the highest can be represented as combin(x-1,9)/combin(52,10). The expected values can be derived from the product of probability multiplied by the quantity of balls. Summing up the expected values reveals that, on average, the highest card is around 48.18. Rounding this gives us the king of spades as the most probable highest card.

Even though it wasn’t your inquiry, it's worth mentioning that the median card is the ace of clubs. The chances of the highest card being less than the ace of clubs is 41.34%, it being precisely the ace of clubs is 10.60%, and greater than that is 48.05%.

Stephen K. from Atlanta, GA

Strategies grounded in mathematical principles and insights applicable to numerous casino games such as blackjack, craps, roulette, and countless others available for play. combin Please verify your email and click the link we sent you to finalize your registration.

Highest of 10 Cards

Highest Card Probability Expected
10 0.000000000063 0.000000000632
11 0.000000000632 0.000000006953
12 0.000000003477 0.000000041719
13 0.000000013906 0.000000180784
14 0.000000045196 0.000000632742
15 0.000000126548 0.000001898227
16 0.000000316371 0.000005061939
17 0.000000723134 0.000012293281
18 0.00000153666 0.000027659882
19 0.00000307332 0.000058393084
20 0.000005839308 0.000116786168
21 0.000010616924 0.000222955411
22 0.000018579618 0.000408751587
23 0.00003144243 0.000723175884
24 0.00005165542 0.001239730087
25 0.000082648672 0.002066216811
26 0.000129138551 0.003357602319
27 0.000197506019 0.005332662506
28 0.000296259028 0.008295252787
29 0.000436592252 0.012661175306
30 0.000633058765 0.01899176296
31 0.000904369665 0.028035459607
32 0.001274339073 0.040778850337
33 0.001772993493 0.058508785267
34 0.002437866053 0.082887445794
35 0.003315497832 0.116042424112
36 0.004463170158 0.160674125694
37 0.005950893544 0.220183061136
38 0.007863680755 0.298819868684
39 0.010304133403 0.401861202713
40 0.013395373424 0.535814936951
41 0.017284352805 0.708658464999
42 0.022145577031 0.930114235312
43 0.028185279858 1.211967033891
44 0.035646089232 1.568427926212
45 0.044812226463 2.016550190844
46 0.056015283079 2.576703021634
47 0.069640622206 3.273109243697
48 0.086134453782 4.134453781513
49 0.106011635423 5.194570135747
50 0.129864253394 6.493212669683
51 0.158371040724 8.076923076923
52 0.192307692308 10
Total 1 48.181818181818


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