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Ask The Wizard #116

I've come across a promotion from a casino that allows me to receive half of my bet back if the dealer has a blackjack. How would this change the house edge, and is there an optimal strategy shift?

anonymous

That sounds like an excellent deal. With six decks in play, the dealer hits a winning blackjack with a probability of 2*(4/13)*(24/311)*(1-2*(95/310)*(23/309)), which equals approximately 4.53%. Therefore, receiving half of your bet back in such instances equates to a value of around 2.27%. Considering a house edge of 0.5%, this gives players a slight advantage of 1.77%. The strategy remains consistent with typical blackjack; it's unfortunate I missed this offer.

What prompted you to simulate a staggering 5,197,920,000 games of 10 hands each for your analysis? Texas Hold’em page ? Is that number significant?

anonymous

I configured my simulator to operate for a predetermined duration. After every 10,000 hands, the program checks the elapsed time and halts whenever the designated end time is reached, regardless of its current progress.

I understand that video poker involves random card selection, but are the cards chosen precisely at the moment the player presses the button for both the deal and the draw?

anonymous

From what I gather, different makers of video poker machines have varied methods. At the very least, the cards drawn for the player are established when they press the button. Some providers also determine the draw cards at that moment, while others continue shuffling the remaining 47 cards until the player initiates the drawing of replacement cards.

A number of Indian casinos in Oklahoma are restricted to using 'class 2' poker machines, where skill doesn't play a role—does this imply that the game results are predetermined? Would the outcome be the same regardless of who plays?

anonymous

Allow me to clarify what a class 2 machine is for those unfamiliar. It's a slot machine where outcomes are dictated by the drawing of bingo balls. If executed correctly (which often isn't the case), it operates similarly to a standard slot machine. During my visits to two casinos in Tulsa, the closest resemblance to video poker I found were 'pull tabs'. In this format, a player places a bet, presses a button, five cards appear on screen, and a voucher drops if a win occurs, which can then be taken to the cashier. While there’s a paytable for the five-card hand, I suspect the card dealing isn’t genuinely random; it's primarily a visual representation of your winnings.

I'm preparing for a trip to Las Vegas, and it’s been some time since my last visit. I recall that Binion’s was once regarded as the top spot for craps, but I’ve heard that this reputation has changed since Harrah's took over. Can you guide me to the best places to play craps now?

anonymous

I doubt that the acquisition has negatively impacted the craps experience at Binion’s Horseshoe in Vegas. Although they previously offered 100x odds, they discontinued that long before federal marshals intervened earlier this year. Currently, the best craps odds can be found at Casino Royale, located between the Venetian and Harrah’s, which still offers 100x odds.

My inquiry stems from observations you've made and some rumors I've come across. If it’s accurate that dealers in Las Vegas learn to spin and roll the ball similarly at dealer school, does that mean it's possible to predict the ball’s landing quadrant based on how a dealer spins?

anonymous

No, that's not correct. Dealers are only instructed in fundamental techniques, and nothing to that advanced level. In fact, if a dealer had that sort of control, they could simply enlist an accomplice to place bets where they knew the ball would land, resulting in significant financial gains.

Hello, Michael. Could you explain why it's more advantageous to make Come bets with odds as opposed to Place bets? My calculations indicate that Pure Place bets yield higher returns with equal units. For instance, if I place a $10 bet on 4, I would win $18, compared to only $15 from a Come bet ($5 on the initial plus $10 from the odds). Additionally, with Place bets, I can select my numbers and win on the first roll. Am I overlooking something?

anonymous

Yes, you are misunderstanding a key factor. A Come bet can win on the first roll 22.22% of the time and lose 11.11% of the time. Therefore, you are neglecting the added value that comes with the possibility of winning on that first roll of a Come bet. However, if you had prior knowledge that the first roll would hit a point number, then your calculations would be accurate.

At the Privilege Casino While you cannot split aces, you have the option to double down. How would this affect the strategy under Cryptologic rules with six decks, and how does it influence the house edge?

anonymous

The restriction on splitting aces raises the house edge by approximately 0.18%. The optimal play is to double down only when facing a six; otherwise, it's best to hit.

When two individuals roll dice, what are the odds of them rolling the same number? Is there a specific formula to calculate this probability?

anonymous

Absolutely. You would need to evaluate the possible totals from 2 to 12 and calculate the chances of rolling each total twice. Therefore, the answer would be (1/36).2+(2/36)2+(3/36)2+(4/36)2+(5/36)2+(6/36)2+(5/36)2+(4/36)2+(3/36)2+(2/36)2+(1/36)2= 11.27%.

Hi I’ve been playing the Java Let It Ride Game I've been enjoying your website—it's quite entertaining! I’d like to know how accurately it simulates gameplay in a real casino. Does it utilize a freshly shuffled virtual deck for each hand dealt?

anonymous

The gameplay mimics the authentic experience closely. Casinos utilize shuffling machines that are reputed to be quite proficient. Similarly, my program reshuffles the deck after every hand as well.

If a university's football team has a 10% chance of winning the first game and a 30% chance of winning the second, alongside a 65% chance of losing both games, what likelihood do they have of winning exactly once?

anonymous

Assuming the games are independent, the probability of losing both would be 90% multiplied by 70%, which equals 63%. However, since you indicated that the likelihood of losing both is actually 65% (which exceeds 63%), this suggests a correlation between the events. Given that the probability of losing both is 65% and just losing the second game is 70%, the chance of winning the first game and losing the second must be 5%. By applying the same reasoning, the probability of losing the first game and winning the second should be 25%. This leaves only 5% chance of winning both games. Hence, the overall probability of winning exactly once is 25% plus 5%, equating to 30%.