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Ask The Wizard #114
I want to confirm whether you are required to provide your real personal details like name, address, phone number, and date of birth when registering at online casinos.
Yes, you are expected to provide that information. If certain less reputable casinos find that you've given false details, they may refuse to pay out winnings. Additionally, these personal details are relatively easy for someone with bad intentions to obtain. For instance, I was recently asked by Crazy Vegas casino for my Social Security number, which seemed excessive to me, so I supplied them with a fake one. When anyone asks for my mother’s maiden name, I just use the name of my cat instead.
Could you please alleviate my frustration by providing an answer to a question that has been bothering me for months? I primarily play baccarat for fun and have developed my own guidelines for deciding when to bet on Banker or Player, sticking to a single unit bet per hand (no betting systems for me). Out of curiosity, I applied my guidelines on the Zumma books over 1600 shoes and made a tidy profit (averaging about 60 hands per shoe). Zumma claims that betting this many hands is sufficient to validate a strategy conceptually. However, I read that 1600 shoes may not be a statistically significant sample size due to the wide variety of B/P combinations in baccarat shoes. I've also considered the impact of larger populations on sample size, concluding via various online calculators that approximately 2,400 shoes would be necessary for a sample sized large enough to account for the extensive variations of baccarat combinations, which you calculated as over 4.9 trillion possible outcomes. So, what’s the accurate number, 2,400 or over a million?
There isn't a universal figure that defines when you enter the long run or when your sample size is sufficient to support a hypothesis. It is always a gradient. That said, we can state that the standard deviation of the sample mean decreases as the sample size increases. You seem to be asking for clarity on the sample size needed for the sample mean to be within 1% of the actual mean with a 95% confidence level. From my calculations, the standard deviations for banker and player bets are 0.93 and 0.95 respectively, so we’ll take an average of 0.94. After some estimation, this leads us to around 33,944 hands needed for a reliable outcome. When you consider 60 hands per shoe, that totals about 566 shoes. house edge You state 'No betting systems for me,' yet having decision-making rules about when to bet on banker or player certainly constitutes a betting system. I still harbor doubts about your claimed profits over 1600 shoes.
When playing triple-play, should there be a change in your strategies? For example, if you have four cards to complete an inside straight with no paying cards visible, should you go for it or discard the entire hand for a new deal? Additionally, what’s your perspective on playing triple play ($1.00) versus single play ($1.00) machines? My husband and I have been dedicated video poker players for the past decade.
With identical payout tables, the strategies remain consistent across single-play, triple-play, and multi-play machines. Personally, I tend to favor multi-play games, although they often come with less favorable payout tables. Generally, the more hands involved, the less advantageous the payout tables are.
Recently, I had an experience at Casino Niagra in Canada while playing blackjack at a full table. The game proceeded normally until I chose to stand on 17. The dealer, showing an 8, ended up flipping over a ten, totaling 18. In an unusual turn of events, the dealer mistakenly drew an additional card, receiving a Jack and busting. I thought this might warrant a misdeal or push for all players, but the dealer insisted the house rules state staying on 17 or higher and hitting on 16 or lower. I disagreed, and when the pit boss arrived, he confirmed the dealer's stance. I would greatly appreciate your input on this situation, especially since I had made a substantial bet. Perhaps my emotional reaction is just due to my loss.
I concur with the casino's ruling. The rules make it clear that the dealer must stand on 18. Once the dealer reaches 18, that number is final and immutable; any additional cards dealt afterward are irrelevant to altering that total. In some one or two deck games, casinos may opt to reshuffle under those circumstances.
I've been playing at two online casinos for about a month now and have had some good fortune, winning about $1500. I'm curious about what amount I could safely win daily at one online casino without being labeled as an advantage player or having my account closed due to my success. I'm concerned that winning even $50-$100 a day could prompt them to shut my account. I'm not using any bots; I’m simply lucky. Could you offer some guidance?
Identifying advantage players isn't solely based on how much they win, but rather on their playing habits. A key indicator of a bonus abuser is someone who stops playing soon after fulfilling the requirements of a bonus. Flat betting and playing games with low house edges can raise red flags too. You didn’t mention any bonuses, so assuming you didn’t use one, you should be fine. If you did take a bonus, as long as you gave the casino significantly more play than the required amount, you should remain in good standing. Anyone with a bit of sense in the gambling industry understands that in the short-term, there will always be winners, losers, and possibly losing streaks, but over the long haul, the house edge will ensure that the casino comes out ahead.
I'm experiencing some concerns about my boyfriend, with whom I've been for nearly seven years and he is the father of my child. He has been behaving unusually, and while I recognize that we both have a lot on our plates and are under stress, I'm beginning to worry that he might be unfaithful. He assures me that he would never cheat, but I still feel uncertain and would appreciate some advice.
It's important not to jump to conclusions without tangible proof. Many men experience changes when they hit what is often called the seven-year itch, and it doesn’t necessarily indicate infidelity. My suggestion would be to either consider hiring a private investigator or, alternatively, give him the benefit of the doubt during this challenging time.
As I said in the November 11, 2000 column Statistically sound strategies and insights for casino games like blackjack, craps, roulette, and numerous other games that can be enjoyed.