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Ask The Wizard #111

I've been utilizing your basic approach for jacks-or-better video poker, and I'm curious if you could share a particularly simplified method for blackjack aimed at those of us who don't engage frequently enough to commit the entire strategy to memory.

anonymous

Yes! Here it is:

  1. Stand on hard 12-16 against dealer 2-6
  2. Double on 10,11 against dealer 2-9
  3. Always split eights, nines, and aces
  4. Stand on soft 18 or more
  5. Stand on hard 17 or more
  6. If rules 1-5 do not apply then hit
  7. Never take insurance

When playing on a six-deck blackjack game where the dealer stands on a soft 17, following this simplified strategy results in a house edge of 0.93%. However, adhering to the full basic strategy can reduce that edge down to 0.41%.

What are the advantages and disadvantages of discarding a card from the shoe in a blackjack game when a new dealer takes over?

anonymous

If you aren’t counting cards, then it doesn’t matter much. But for card counters, it’s equivalent to reducing the card penetration by one.

How does this work: www.1800gotjunk.com/genie/ ?

anonymous

Let’s express your number in the form of 10t + u. When you subtract each digit, you arrive at 10t + u - t - u = 9t, which is always divisible by 9. Notice that all numbers divisible by 9 share the same characteristic predicted by the genie.

In four-card poker, which is statistically more likely to occur: a straight or a flush?

anonymous

Excluding straight flushes and royal flushes, the odds of hitting a straight are 1.02%, whereas the likelihood of achieving a flush is slightly higher at 1.04%. Therefore, a flush has a marginally better chance of occurring.

I love your website! I am a fan of casino gaming but usually only have a modest budget (under $100 for each session). Which game do you suggest to make the most of my bankroll and enhance my chances of leaving with a win?

anonymous

Thank you for your input. When considering both the probability of winning and the importance of preserving my bankroll, I believe the best options are blackjack—favorable for winning—and pai gow poker—better for protecting your funds. If you can locate a blackjack table with a $5 minimum bet, I recommend that. If the minimum bet is $10, then pai gow poker would be the better choice.

How does the logic behind random number generators interact with the 'hold percentage'? I believe that most machines are programmed to maintain a specific hold percentage over time, and it seems that this may directly affect the likelihood of payouts. I understand that a brand-new machine could hit a royal flush on the very first spin, but I think eventually, the hold percentage will be reached. I've also heard the term 'cycle'; a slot technician once mentioned that a machine operates on a 365-day cycle. What does this mean?

anonymous

First, let’s clarify what 'hold' actually refers to. In the context of electronic gaming, it represents the theoretical return rate that the game is designed to have. In both video poker and slots, each spin is random and does not depend on previous spins. According to mathematical principles, as the number of spins increases, the actual return will usually converge toward the theoretical hold value. Thus, contrary to what many believe, a machine doesn’t get hot or cold to balance out returns. The term 'cycle' is a misleading industry term that refers to the array of possible outcomes generated by the machine's random number generators. Unfortunately, this term often confuses both staff and players. To debunk popular misconceptions, there are no cycles; every play is completely random and independent of prior plays.

Do you have any upcoming appearances on television? I recall something about a blackjack team, so I’m curious whether it's part of next week’s episode. (By the way, I prefer American Casino on TLC over The Casino on Fox! I believe gambling doesn't mix well with other sensational aspects.)

anonymous

Yes, I will be featured in an upcoming episode of The Casino, although I'm not aware of the exact air date. In that episode, I provide guidance to some university students on strategies to turn $1000 into $5000. Regarding American Casino, I agree it is indeed a superior show.

On average, how much time do you spend in casinos? Specifically, how much of that time is spent watching or observing? craps experiment ) versus playing?

anonymous

My time in casinos varies significantly but typically isn’t too drastic. Some weeks I may spend considerable hours, while other weeks I may not spend any time at all. If I had to estimate an average, I would say about two hours each week, with roughly 90% of that time engaged in actual gameplay. I rarely just observe, as I was indeed placing bets during the dice-setting experiment, hoping that the setters would generate some winnings.

Given your focus on house advantage, do you ever play for leisure—whether that’s on the casino floor, at machines, or during poker games—or is it only card counting and/or progressive video poker for you? Or do you refrain from playing altogether? I believe many of your readers would find that interesting, though you may prefer to keep it under wraps!

anonymous

I typically only engage in playful gaming if I’m entertaining a friend visiting Las Vegas and just gambling alongside them. Otherwise, I’m always looking for an advantage. I also try out new games occasionally to ensure I fully grasp the rules. I don’t want to reveal all my strategies, but card counting and positive expectation video poker definitely form part of my gaming repertoire.

Do you have any tips for those of us living in Connecticut, who have access to some of the worst video poker machines in existence? Is there a recognized way to compel a casino to enhance their game offerings when the demand isn’t necessarily requiring such changes?

anonymous

In a situation where competition is nearly nonexistent, that’s what usually transpires. Simply asking the casino for better machines isn’t going to yield results. If players are willing to engage with subpar games, why would the casino feel the need to change? Your best bet is to reach out to Connecticut lawmakers and urge them to dismantle the two-casino monopoly in the state, thereby paving the way for competition.