Ask The Wizard #107

This would be an awful choice. For instance, if you decide to double on a blackjack against a dealer showing 5 (in a six-deck game where the dealer stands on soft 17), your expected outcome is approximately 0.622362, according to my calculations. Therefore, even in an even money game, pursuing this route would still lead to an error resulting in about 38% of your bet being lost. blackjack appendix 9I On page 23, it mentions, 'If you achieve a total of twelve with a 10-2 or 2-10 combination (where '10' can be any ten-value card), and if two or fewer decks are in play (or seven or fewer if the dealer stands on soft 17), it's recommended to hit.' Is this accurate? I can understand this strategy in a one or two deck scenario where the composition-dependent approach has some merit, but the author suggests hitting a 10-2 or 2-10 with SEVEN decks in play (S17)! That seems incorrect to me.

I take an annual trip to Vegas and really enjoy playing Pai Gow poker, especially since the casinos near my home don’t allow banking. I have a question about etiquette: how significant is it for players to retract their bets and abstain from playing a hand when another player chooses to bank? I've often experienced this, particularly in smaller casinos like Sahara, where players often exclaim, 'If I wanted to give another player my money, I’d play at the poker table.' This frustrates me, and I would love to hear your perspective. The Theory of Blackjack I would find that equally infuriating. While not banking, it shouldn't really matter who is chosen to bank. I’m unaware of any specific etiquette rule regarding this situation, but I consider it a clear violation of common courtesy.

Thank you for your kind feedback. The house edge remains constant for any game as long as the rules are the same and the player’s skill level doesn’t change. Factors like the size of the bankroll and betting strategies are irrelevant. Even if I were to sit down at a $5 game with just $5 aiming to win $1,000,000, the house edge would be unchanged. Though my chances of success are slim, the risks associated with a worst-case scenario in the casino are far less daunting compared to the most favorable outcomes.

In my estimation, at a large casino on the Strip, the number of competent counters on any given night is perhaps half of one individual (suggesting that one person might be distributed between two casinos). I believe this figure is so low based on my extensive time spent at blackjack tables, where I have only identified other counters a couple of times throughout my visits.

The chance of drawing Ace-King is calculated as (8/52)*(4/51) = 0.012066. The odds of getting any pair are (3/51) = 0.058824. Thus, the probability of securing a pair or better stands at 0.07089. To determine the likelihood of achieving exactly seven hands of Ace-King or better, we use the formula combin(35,7)*(.07089)^7*(1-.07089)^28 = 0.00772. To establish the probability of getting seven or more, we would need to compute each value from 7 up to 35 one by one, ultimately resulting in a cumulative probability of 0.010366551.

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